In cooperation with

Morning
8:30 - 9:00 Registration, coffee and donuts
9:00 - 9:15 Welcoming Remarks
9:15 - 10:45 Haimes
Course Overview - Systems Methodologies as a Tool In Water Resource Decision Making
10:45 - 11:15 Coffee Break
11:15 - 12:30 Haimes
Review of Fundamentals In Systems Engineering - Linear and Dynamic Programming
12:30 - 1:30 Lunch

Afternoon
1:30 - 3:00 Haimes
Lagrange Multipliers
3:00 - 3:30 Coffee Break
3:30 - 5:00 Haimes
Total Risk Management

Evening
5:00 - 6:00 "Get Together" Party - Colonnade Club Garden

TUESDAY, May 11

Morning
8:15 - 9:30 Haimes
Planning for Capacity Expansion In Water Systems
9:30 - 10:45 Haimes
Risk of Extreme Events: Part I
10:45 - 11:15 Coffee Break
11:15 - 12:30 Haimes
The Building Blocks of Models
12:30 - 1:30 Lunch

Afternoon
1:30 - 2:45 Haimes
The Multiobjective Statistical Method (MSM)
2:45 - 3:00 Coffee Break
3:00 - 4:15 Haimes
Decision Making Under Uncertainties
4:15 - 5:30 Lambert
Risk of Extreme Events: Part II

WEDNESDAY, May 12

Morning
8:15 - 9:30 Haimes
Analysis of Multiobjective Functions In Water Resources
9:30 - 10:45 Haimes
The Surrogate Worth Trade-Off (SWT) Method
10:45 - 11:15 Coffee Break
11:15 - 12:30 Haimes
The SWT Method with Multiple Decision Makers
12:30 - 1:30 Lunch

Afternoon
1:30 - 3:00 Haimes
Constructing Probability Distribution Functions
3:00 - 3:30 Coffee Break
3:30 - 5:00 Haimes
Workshop No. 1 - The SWT Method as Applied to Risk Analysis in Water Resource Systems

THURSDAY, May 13

Morning
8:15 - 9:30 Haimes
Multiobjectlve Decision Tree Analysis
9:30 - 10:45 Haimes
Sensitivity, Risk, Uncertainties, and lrreversibilities as Multiple Objective Functions In Water Resources: The Uncertainty/Sensitivity Index Method (USIM)
10:45 - 11:15 Coffee Break
11:15 - 12:30 Farland
Risk Assessment and Management: Environmental National Perspective
12:30 - 1:30 Lunch

Afternoon
1:30 - 2:30 Haimes
The Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method (PMRM)-Applications to Dam Safety
2:30 - 2:45 Coffee Break
2:45 - 4:00 Lambert
Risk Management of Multiple Failure Modes
4:00 - 5:15 Haimes
Workshop No. 2 - Multiobjective Analysis In Water Resources

Evening -- Banquet

FRIDAY, May 14

Morning
8:15 - 9:30 Haimes
Quantifying the Uncertainties In Risk Management
9:30 - 12:00 Haimes
Critical Infrastructures: Risk Assessment and Management
12:00 Haimes
Summary, Conclusion of Short Courses and Distribution of Certificates

Yacov Y. Haimes is Lawrence R. Quarles Professor of Systems Engineering and Civil Engineering, and Founding Director of the Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia. Prior to his position at the Univeristy of Virginia, he was on the faculty of the Systems Engineering (also former Department Chairman) and Civil Engineering at Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio. He was the first American Geo-physical Union Congessional Science Fellow (1977-78), serving as a Staffer in the Executive Office of the President and in the U.S. House of Representatives. He has participated in numerous short courses, published over 200 technical papers, and is the author of several books; the most recent book (1998) is Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, published by Wiley & Sons. He is a registered professional engineer, a Fellow of six societies: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), International Water Resources Association (IWRA), American Water Resources Association (AWRA), American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), and the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). He is the immediate Past President of SRA.

Large-scale water resource systems are often characterized by multiple noncommensurate objectives, multiple decision-makers (at the various levels of the hierarchical decision-making structure), and by elements of risk and uncertainty. The hierarchical-multiobjective approach, which is well suited for addressing these inherent characteristics of water resources systems, will be discussed along with its applications. Most important management decisions concerning water resources systems involve the assessment and management of some aspects of risk either implicitly or explicitly. The various lectures in this short course will address the risk assessment/management process, which comprises both quantitative/empirical and qualitative/ normative analyses. This process encompasses i) risk identification, ii) risk quantification, iii) risk evaluation, iv) risk acceptance or aversion, and v) risk control/management. Furthermore, in water resource systems (as in other civil systems), risk assessment and risk management overlap to a large extent and require the subjective judgment of the appropriate decision makers in trading-off the noncommensurate beneficial and adverse consequences resulting from any ultimate 'acceptable risk" decision. The existence of these fundamental trade-offs among conflicting and noncommensurate multiple objectives and attributes demands the consideration of risk management as an integral part of the overall decision-making process.

Where:
Peabody Hall, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903

For:
Engineers, managers, hydrologists, planners, and public officials interested in risk assessment and management in water resources systems.

Certificate:
A certificate of participation will be provided to all course participants.

Course Notes and Book
The participants will be provided with:

One set of notes.

Selected sections from the book: RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, AND MANAGEMENT, by Y.Y. Haimes, Wiley & Sons, New York, 1998.

Selected chapters from the book: HIERARCHICAL ANALYSES OF WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS: Modeling and Optimization of Large Scale Systems, by Y.Y. Haimes, McGraw-Hill International Book Company, New York, 1977.

Selected sections from the book: RISK BENEFIT ANALYSIS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, Y.Y. Haimes, Editor, Plenum Publishing Co., New York, 1981.

Selected sections from the book: MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING: THEORY AND METHODOLOGY, by V. Chankong and Y.Y. Haimes, Elsevier North-Holland Publishing Co., New York, 1983.

Chapter 1 of the book: HIERARCHICAL-MULTIOBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS, Y.Y. Haimes, T. Shima, K. Tarvainen, and J. Thadathil, Hemisphere Publishing Co., 1990.

One copy of the book: Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources VI, Y.Y. Haimes, David A. Moser, and Eugene Stakhiv, Editors, American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, 1994.

One copy of the book: Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources V, YY. Haimes, David A. Moser, and Eugene Stakhiv, Editors, American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, 1992.

One copy of the book: Multiobjective Analysis in Water Resources, Y.Y. Haimes, and D.J. Allee, Editors, American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, 1982.

Housing:
The University has reserved a block of rooms at:

Hampton Inn, Seminole Square

More detailed housing information will be supplied in response to registration.