September 2009
September 17, 2009 – Project Initiation Meeting – Charlottesville, VA
September 29. 2009 – Project Initiation Meeting – Charlottesville, VA

October 2009 
October 6, 2009 – Initial VDOT SPS data transfer
October 9, 2009 - Virginia Section Institute of Transportation Engineers – Wintergreen, VA
October 22, 3009 - Preliminary Data Meeting – Richmond, VA
October 29, 2009 - TPRAC Update – Charlottesville, VA

November 2009 
November 10, 2009 – Developed Bayesian Network methodology for forecasting
November 13, 2009 - UVA Risk Center presentation of proposed methodology – Charlottesville, VA
NNovember 13, 2009 – SCAN proposal submitted to FHWA/AASHTO

December 2009
December 8, 2009 – Researched data from HUD databases
December 15, 2009 – Transportation Research Forum abstract submitted
December 31, 2010 – Transportation Research Forum conference paper prepared

January 2010
January 13, 2010 – Meeting with UVA Scholars Lab – Charlottesville, VA
January 20, 2010 – Initial charts/maps created for analysis
January 24 , 2010 – Discussed data needs with various GIS data warehousing companies
January 30 , 2010 – Data requirements and availability list completed

February 2010
February 3, 2010 – Identified Virginia population projections from the Virginia Workforce Connection using data received from the US Census estimates.
February 9, 2010 – UVA Scholars Lab GIS data transfer
February 22, 2010 – VDOT SPS data transfer
February 24, 2010 – Updated charts/maps created and analyzed with recently obtained data
February 28, 2010 - Developed proposed risk-based decision analysis framework

March 2010 
March 1, 2010 - Identified and processed relevant elevation data from United States Geological Survey for use in proposed methodology calculations
March 5, 2010 - Performed initial ranking analyses of given data in GIS (using home values, population/projections, slopes, landmarks, etc.)
March 11, 2010 - Final revisions completed for Transportation Research Forum conference paper
March 12, 2010 - Transportation Research Forum presentation – Arlington, VA:  Thekdi, Shital, James H. Lambert, Marsha Fiol, Robin Grier, Chad Tucker. Risk-Based Forecasts of Land Development for Protection of Mobility Options of People and Goods. 51st Annual Transportation Research Forum.  Arlington, VA.  March 12, 2010.

April 2010
April 2, 2010 – Identified Bureau of Economic Analysis Bearfacts containing information on personal income trending by region
April 8, 2010 – Printed posters with maps showing rankings and preliminary data analysis (3April 22, 2010 – Steering committee meeting update

May 2010
May 14, 2010 - Methodology update using steering committee meeting findings
May 25, 2010 - TPRAC update
May 30, 2010 - Refined methodology to use Census blocks, greater use of NLCD land change data between 1999 and 2001

June 2010
June 18, 2010 - Identified new (early 2010 startup) land cover trends project by the US Geological Survey utilizing NLCD data
June 28, 2010 - Refined methodology utilizing reliability analysis to predict time to development

July 2010
July 30, 2010 - Presentation prepared for the Society for Risk Analysis:  Modeling Risk and Avoiding Regret of Adjacent Land Development  for Transportation and other Infrastructure Systems.  Student Merit Competition - Society for Risk June 31, 2010 - Further refined methodology utilizing markov modeling

August 2010
August 20, 2010 – Refined methodology and updated charts/maps
August 27, 2010 – Steering Committee Update, Richmond, VA
August 26, 2010 – Capstone team formed

September 2010
September 20, 2010 – Potential access point counting processes analyzed
September 30, 2010 – Addition of fuzzy logic to theoretical approach
September 30, 2010 – Draft of related paper to Risk Analysis: An International Journal completed

October 2010
October 21, 2010 – Four additional multiple perspective charts/maps
October 25, 2010 – Steering Committee Update, Charlottesville, VA
October 27, 2010 – Transportation Planning Research Advisory Committee, Charlottesville, VA
October 28, 2010 - Multimodal Strategic Planning Meeting, Richmond, VA

November 2010
November 12, 2010 – 95% of access points counted and marked in shareable GIS file for Statewide Mobility System and Corridors of Statewide Significance
November 20, 2010 - Preliminary analysis of the access points points that have been counted to date

December 2010
December 8, 2010 – Made presentation on this effort at the Society for Risk Analysis  2010 Annual Meeting, Salt Lake City, Utah
December 8, 2010 – National Award--Society for Risk Analysis Student Merit Competition, A student paper on this effort by Shital Thekdi et al. was awarded Best Student Paper by the Engineering Infrastructure Specialty Group
December 9, 2010 – Attended Governor’s Transportation Conference, discussed progress with TMPD sponsors, Roanoke, VA
December 12, 2010 – Developed additional maps and charts to integrate land development model with latest access point analysis
December 15, 2010 –  Steering Committee update, Richmond, VA

January 2011
January 5, 2011 – The Institute for Business and Finance Research 2011 Winter Global Conference on Business and Finance, Las Vegas, Nevada

Plans for future effort January 2011 - Summer 2011
April 10, 2011 – INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics and Operations Research
April 29, 2011 - IEEE Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS'10)
Refine methodology
Test methodology
Make trainings and presentations
Migrate results to a website to enable use by localities and regions
Develop recommendations for further implementation

Steering Committee for the Effort:  

Chad Tucker, TMPD, VDOT
Robin Grier, TMPD, VDOT
Marsha Fiol, TMPD, VDOT
Rick Tambellini, VDOT

Brad Shelton, VDOT
Amy O'Leary, VTRC

John Miller, VTRC

Mike Perfater, VTRC

Mary Lynn Tischer, Director, Virginia Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment

Katherine Graham, TMPD

Link to project effort through July 2009 relating to risk of land development adjacent to transportation corridors with training and implementation at fourteen Virginia regions.  

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