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The Academical Village in
the Internet Age Forecasting the Future/Jeffersonian
Principles in the Internet Age
Friday, November 12, 1999
9:15 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.
John Casteen: Good morning
ladies and gentlemen and welcome to e-summit at the University of
Virginia. I am John Casteen, the University's President. It's a
real pleasure to welcome students and faculty and guests and members
of this community and persons from the e-business panel before you
to this morning's first session. I'd like also to welcome those
of you who are watching this program live via Yahoo! broadcast.
We're delighted this weekend to welcome back to Charlottesville
a core group of some 35 alumni and then many others whom I guess
I would describe as being non-core for this purpose but a core group
of some 35 alumni who have become national leaders in Internet businesses.
These are leaders who are in various ways and every day reshaping
the world in which we live and building different futures for us.
The genesis for this conference was in one line in a magazine article.
Fortune Magazine in what I think was a side bar article wrote the
following: "Hey, who needs Stanford. Check out the list of University
of Virginia grads who are big time Internet players" and then the
little piece ended with a line, "So what's in the water down in
Charlottesville?" This is, in sense, a conference on the subject
what's in the water.
We are interested in what it is about
the University of Virginia that may have had some influence on the
alumni whose presentations and discussions with one another that
you will hear in the course of the next couple of days. We're fascinated
about the relationship between academic experience and the cultivation
or development of inventors, entrepreneurs, risk takers and leaders
for a new age.
Then there was a more personal reason
for this weekend's gathering. Bert Ellis who finished the College
in 1975 and the Darden School in 1979 is a member of one of the
alumni Virginia 2020 groups that has been helping us rethink from
the outside, the alumni side of the equation where we are going
as a University as we move toward the beginning of the University's
third century in the year 2020. Bert suggested that alumni leaders
of the Internet would be extremely useful in the dialogue about
what the University becomes in the course of the next couple of
decades. Bert's suggestion was that we invite leaders such as those
who have in fact have come to talk about their experience as leaders
in new technologies, how they imagine what they do, how they took
the steps that led to the creation of their companies or to the
development of their products. Second, Bert said that leaders of
this kind would be essential as we think through the adaptation
or the application or the invention of new technologies with the
University. And third, he thought it might be constructive to do
something we have in fact begun doing already with the session held
last night at Carr's Hill and that is pose questions about the relationship
between education here and the success achieved by these alumni
in this first phase of an ongoing revolution in the Internet sector.
The Virginia 2020 program actually
began as an attempt to write an agenda for a university whose identity
is changed in basic ways in the course of this decade as it has
developed new kinds of strength in teaching and in research, new
resources to make it much more self-sufficient than it has been
at any time in the past and a new set of aspirations about its future.
Under the 2020 program groups of younger alumni, persons graduated
let's say over the course of the last 20 or so years, gather in
different parts of the country to work with us on questions having
to do with what the University ought to be and what it ought to
do in this arbitrary year 2020.
We've asked what ought to change
as the world in which these alumni work and exert leadership changes.
We've asked what is distinctive about the University of Virginia
and ought not to change. What traditions? What core ways of doing
business ought we to retain? And we have found in all of these discussions
that coming to terms with new technologies and, indeed, learning
ways to master those technologies is essential to every vision of
what we might be in the course of the next couple of decades.
And then there is another side to
the project. Virginia 2020 also includes the work of four planning
commissions formed primarily out of the University's faculty here
on the Grounds and charged with exploring four different activities
or areas that have to do with the University's mission in the course
of the next generation. These commissions have worked to try to
figure out the resource issues, the exact academic strategies, the
larger matters of philosophy that have to do with how we serve this
state, how we serve the nation and the world in the course of our
next era. The commissions addressed these topics. First, the sciences
and technologies and in particular, the new technologies. Second,
the fine and performing arts. Third, public service and outreach
performed by faculty in the service of government or industry or
education or other sectors around us. And finally, international
activities and programs, especially those that bring faculty and
students together in learning the nature of a rapidly expanding
international culture.
The commissions are now beginning
the final phase of their pre-report writing activities. Their reports
will be the blueprint for building strength in these key areas over
the course of the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years depending on the topic
and elevating the University to national prominence in each of these
four areas. The new technologies obviously affect planning across
the entire University, how students learn, how and what faculty
teach, where teaching and learning take place, how libraries store
and distribute or disseminate information, how multimedia innovations
can transform our arts programs in the international sense. Today,
we ask our Internet alumni to talk to us about how these new technologies
are revolutionizing our own lives and their industries and we ask
them to think about the world around us and about the futures they
can imagine based on what they know now about these technologies.
I should tell you that I don't expect
the conversation to be simply publicity for the Internet. All of
us have concerns about privacy. All of us are interested in access
to information. All of us believe that the integrity of information
has a special kind of importance in a university committed to truth,
so don't expect this to be merely an advertisement for the Internet.
Look instead for a chance to deal with the hardest issues we can
think about as a society, as we confront the impacted new technologies
in what we know and we learn. We're also looking to hear from you,
the audience, in the course of this weekend. Alumni and faculty
and student panelists will be making presentations. There will be
chances for discussion.
Because this is the University of
Virginia, one of the topics we know will be the Internet's impact
on Jeffersonian ideals of freedom, of privacy, of security, of democracy,
ideals that this University obviously holds very dear. This topic
of technologies as they relate to the University's origins and history
has had an impact here that perhaps is specialized because of where
we are. Our founder had substantial interest in emerging technologies
whether these technologies were innovative farm implements or manufacturing
processes. We suspect that Thomas Jefferson would have embraced
the Internet, not simply as a novel technology but also as a treasure
trove of information. Indeed, his quarters at Monticello will suggest
very clearly that treasure troves of information were essential
to his way of thinking about his world. We suspect that he would
have seen it as an empowering force and as one that was essential
to the well being of the people in the republic that he imagined.
Thomas Jefferson wrote in 1817 a phrase or a set of phrases that
have become kind of basic to our thinking about the Internet. The
phrases are these: knowledge is power, knowledge is safety, and
knowledge is happiness. I suspect that in the course of the weekend
all of us can learn more about the ways in which information available
through the Internet impacts the reality of those three statements
on our own existences and on the world in which we live.
Access to information is obviously
no longer limited to the privileged few. Extraordinary numbers of
information sources including a vast array of texts and databases
exist now in our University libraries and in university libraries
around the world, and these are now available in a sense at the
fingertips of computer users everywhere. The Internet is, in a sense,
helping to fulfill the original vision of this place, of an informed
and educated populace. Thomas Jefferson thought that information
knowledge was essential to the well being of a free people. Obviously
we do also, but this is also a chance to think about the implications
of the Internet of these new points of access for person who are
cut off from access, persons who don't have the power of the knowledge
revolution at their disposal, so this is a weekend for talking about
hard topics. It's a chance for alumni and faculty members and students
to engage in what we hope will be provocative discussions about
the Internet and about the serious theoretical and practical and
social and ethical issues that surround the use of the Internet
here and globally. We hope that the conversations this weekend will
help us to generate plans for action to guide the University of
Virginia over the course of the next couple of decades.
Finally, a couple of words of special
thanks. To Bert Ellis for conceiving this project and for being
the spearhead as we move forward with it. To PriceWaterhouseCoopers
and to Fortune Magazine for sponsoring the weekend and then
to the alumni, the core 35 and the many others, who've returned
to Charlottesville to help us to find out what is in the water in
Charlottesville and to help us plan for the University's third century.
Thanks to all of you for coming. And now it's my pleasure to introduce
Ted Snyder, the Dean of the Darden School of Business who will introduce
today's speakers and moderate the first plenary session. Will you
please welcome Dean Snyder?
Edward A. Snyder: Thank you,
John. At the outside, I'd like to encourage the audience during
this opening session to use the cards provided to you to write down
your most provocative questions and we'll collect those questions
at the break which will be around 10:25 and we'll use your questions
to continue the dialogue after the break.
Let me now introduce our panel. I'd
like to begin with the person opposite to me, to the audience's
right. That's Jeff Walker. He's Managing Partner of Chase Capital
Partners. He's one of the handful of top people at the enterprise.
That's a global private equity firm with $42 billion invested. Chase
is one of the most prominent investors in Internet companies, among
them Star Media, Street.com, and Multex. Next to Jeff is Allison
Abraham. She's Chief Operating Officer at iVillage. She's responsible
for developing and implementing iVillage's unique strategy. It's
a company that has an innovative on-line network providing solutions
to problems facing women. Just to give you a sense of the scale
of that community, iVillage has 2.7 million members, 7.5 million
unique visitors every month.
Next to Allison is Bert Ellis. As
John mentioned, the brainchild behind this conference. Bert is Chairman
and CEO of iXL Enterprises. He founded iXL Enterprises in 1996 with
the goal to help businesses use technology and take advantages of
all the innovations that they could possibly do. To my left, right
here, is Mark Templeton. Mark's President and Chief Executive Officer
of Citrix Systems, which is a leading system software company. Mark
has been instrumental in establishing and sustaining the company's
solid financial position and importantly moving the company into
the Internet market in the U.S. and beyond. Next to Mark is Lawton
Fitt. Lawton is Managing Director of Goldman Sachs where since 1989,
she's focused on high tech companies, providing them with equity
financing and taking many of the most prominent Internet company
public. She was named one of the 25 most influential people in e-business
by Business Week Magazine.
In the middle of our panel is Halsey
Minor. Halsey's Founder, Chairman and CEO of CNET. Halsey has built
CNET into a leading source of information and services relating
to computers and technology drawing more than eight million users
a month. Halsey's also pioneered a media marriage between television
and the web using television programming to make complex subject
matter concerning technology widely accessible. And next to Halsey
is Tim Koogle. Tim is Chief Executive Officer of Yahoo! He's one
of the Internet's most prominent and successful business leaders.
He developed the model that every major search engine has followed,
namely make the site free to users and support it with advertising.
The numbers change so fast. I had 80 million users per month. I
guess it's over 100 million users that use Yahoo! to start their
on-line work and over $500 million in advertising revenue this year,
so welcome to all of you. Welcome to the panel and I'd like to have
Tim start us off. Stepping back from Yahoo! could you frame what's
happening out there? What's the scale of the Internet phenomenon
growth, users here and elsewhere.
Timothy A. Koogle: Sure, I'll
try. A few of the numbers. I jotted these down this morning as Ted
gave me a little bit of warning that he was going to ask me to give
you the scale of things going on. This year in 1999, best guess--about
200 million users worldwide of the web. That's up from essentially
zero in 1994 and is projected to grow to about almost triple, to
about 500 million users by the year 2003, which is just three years
away. An interesting thing is going on in that already almost half
of those users are outside of the U.S. and that's projected to continue
to grow to probably two-thirds outside of the U.S. and one-third
inside by U.S. by 2003 or 2004, so a whole lot of users growing
really fast and what's interesting is the mix already is about 50/50
inside and outside the U.S.
Spending is an interesting thing.
There's at least three categories you can kind of point to. This
is a medium and it is one in which users are essentially businesses
can get in touch directly with users of the web and it's a great
medium for doing advertising, direct marketing and commerce and
so advertising spending has been growing really rapidly from essentially
zero. I think it was $40 million in the year 1995 when we started
our business, world-wide market, a huge market--$40 million, to
this year it's grown to about-- Probably we'll end up with about
$3_ billion in spending this year in advertising worldwide and that's
projected to grow to at least $24 billion in another three years.
Again, mix gradually increasing outside of the U.S. to kind of favor
more an international market.
There's a category called business
to consumer commerce which is actually the direct selling or enabling
of selling between a business and an end user consumer. Business
to consumer commerce this year, probably around $30 billion in round
numbers. Projected to grow to about $178 billion by the year 2003,
and the last category to make you completely dizzy is business to
business commerce. This is actually commerce that's done directly
between businesses over the Internet and this year best guess--$80
billion with a b. In the year 2003, projected to grow to $1.2 trillion.
So, a lot of numbers and big ones and growing really fast and ones
when you look not very far down below the surface of them do talk
a lot about the global growth and balance both in user bases as
well as commerce worldwide, and those are the numbers, so those
are kind of symptoms of something, and I kind of want to maybe just
say a few words about what we see fundamentally going on that's
leading to these things.
I think in anybody's estimation,
200 million users already is a mass market, and 500 million certainly
is and when you get to these tens of billions of dollars in spending
to moving to trillions, this is something very fundamental going
on, and I think it kind of goes like this. Starting at the 30,000
foot level, the thing called the Internet, the web, is a medium
and in some ways there're parts of it that are very similar to past
media. It is about information delivery, but the difference is and
this is fundamental. It is at the same time about content delivery,
commerce and transactions and communication simultaneously, and
also this medium is a global network and it has no time or geographic
boundaries. Fundamental and very profound and so what it's doing
is at the same time it's enabling a whole new generation of businesses
that choose to embrace those facts and fundamentally remake the
shape of media as well as commerce and for entrepreneurs like me,
and I've been one for quite a long time now, it's a wonderful opportunity.
It's one of those fundamental shifts that comes along at least probably
not very often, every several decades probably you see a fundamental
shift happening that kind of shakes things up.
Going on to the future, one of my
cohorts, Jerry Yang, who I joined in the summer of 1995 when we
had six people at the company and no revenue and no written business
plan. I have to say this by the way. Jerry was 26 when I came down
to join he and David to start this thing. They were looking for
an adult supervisor [laughter]. That was the pick-up line that the
recruiter used to get my attention and Jerry and David both are
very unique guys and Jerry, in particular, is very articulate and
many of you may have seen him or heard him speak publicly. He's
quite an unusual young man. I have heard him publicly speak about
something that we have had in line for quite some time and that
is that our vision going out in the future in general terms is that
thing called the Internet actually ends up getting woven into people's
lives. In fact, the way we visualize our business, the business
we continue to create and evolve at Yahoo! is fundamentally a lifestyles
business and if you take that a step further, in a more detailed
form, then looking out over the horizon what it means is that there's
probably what will happen is much the same as happened in prior
inventions like the telephone is a good example that most people
can probably relate to. Probably five years from now, 10 years from
now, certainly 10 years from now, I doubt that anyone will be saying
I went to the Internet to do something. They'll be saying did something
period. You'll be taking the devices, the infrastructure, the way
you get connected and the tools you use in all of that for granted
the same way you use telephones today. You don't hear somebody saying
I went to the telephone to call someone. Right? It's woven into
your life. You'll take it for granted and there will be plethora
of devices and connection points, wired and wireless, all seamless,
worldwide, and I think that it will be woven into people's lives
a lot. It is profound in the opportunities it provides all of us
and challenges.
There are existing businesses and
I think we're going to talk about this more today that have to face
cannibalization, channel rearrangement, food chain rearrangement.
It's great opportunity for brand new enterprises to be formed, to
take advantage of that, to work around the existing food chain and
fundamentally it's a pretty cool thing. So that's it.
Snyder: Thanks, Tim. Halsey,
maybe you could continue this and address some of the changes in
business models that you think are most relevant and also try to
bring in the individual. What are the implications for us as consumers
as individuals?
Halsey A. Minor: Actually,
I'll start off by saying telling a story which I think is kind of
interesting. Tim might remember it. It was back in 1995 and I think
it was the first day that you actually showed up at Yahoo!. It was
pretty close and I'm actually telling this story at great risk to
me. Not many of you are going to think I'm very smart afterwards,
but I had this bright idea that this guy Jerry Yang who I knew had
a pretty neat search engine built around a directory and so I called
him up and I took him out to lunch and I said, we had $5 million
burning a whole in our pocket and at the time it was a lot of money,
and they were out trying to raise some money and I said, "hey, I'd
kind of like to look at possibly investing in you guys." I said,
"what's the valuation of the company," and Jerry said, "well, I
think we're going to do around and probably value at about $40 million,"
and I said, "$40 million. Jerry, what kind of business? What do
you think your business looks like?" He goes, "well, I think in
three or four years, we'll have $20 million in revenue and about
$18 million in profit," and of course, now, Yahoo!'s something like
$60 billion in market cap and of course, $20 million was probably
your net income for the last quarter [laughter].
Koogle: Half our net income.
Minor: I'm sorry, half of
his net income [laughter], so anyway, generally you're not supposed
to start out with making yourself look very stupid, but I have just
been shocked at the degree to which the Internet has changed since
1995. We actually started accepting advertising probably a couple
of months, I think, before Yahoo! in around June and I went to my
sales force and I said to them, "I want 11 advertisers by the time
we launch," and I don't know why I wanted 11 advertisers, but that
was the number that I wanted and my sales force came back to me
and they were terrified and they said, "Halsey, there're only seven
advertisers on the entire Internet and none of them are paying"
and that was sort of the state of affairs in the middle of 1995
and now you hear the numbers and I think our first conference that
we held in 1995 was on Internet commerce but the topic was why is
commerce on the web not taking off, and now, of course, today's
it's sort of a foregone conclusion that Internet commerce is one
of the great sea changes that we've experienced in our society and
in business and everybody is now, whether you're a web only player
or it's bricks and clicks as the people at Charles Schwab have now
coined, everybody is obviously jumping into the game of selling
products on line and yet most of them aren't making money so it's
hard really to sort of understand what the implications of all this
commerce really is, but I think that there are a couple of things
that are very clear and one of the things that we're seeing the
birth of efficient markets in an efficient marketplace across the
full gamut of products and services that we buy as consumes and
that businesses buy from each other and so sometimes it's helpful
to actually look at precursors to sort of figure out where things
are going and the only other sort of electronically-mediated market
that we all know about.
In fact, many of us in this room
participate in, is the stock market. Stock market, the bond markets,
other kinds of financial markets have been for quite some time essentially
electronic marketplaces. Now, the Internet, of course, broadens
them which is why we've seen the phenomenon of day traders and others
things but they're really the first examples of efficient markets
and I actually worked on Wall Street for a couple of years when
I left Virginia for Merrill Lynch and still many of my friends work
on Wall Street and what you'll find is that really the more liquid
and efficient markets become the harder it is, in fact, to make
money and so the big game on Wall Street is to develop products
and come up with ideas before other people can copy them. There's
a window there where you're sort of alone in a marketplace. The
marketplace is not efficient and you can make a lot of money and
then over time other players enter the market and pricing begins
to contract and spreads go down and over time essentially the businesses
become break even, maybe you make a little money, and oftentimes
you'll, in fact, lose money, and so what we're watching now is that
same phenomenon happen across the full spectrum of goods and services
on the Internet.
We're seeing it begin to happen at
CNET. We have a database of about 175,000 technology products and
two million prices and if you want to buy a Palm Pilot and you shop
at our web site and I'll guarantee you right now there's 45 people
who are selling that product. The database is updated twice a day.
You can sort by availability and price and click off, so we've actually
created, in a sense, a marketplace for people who want to buy Palm
Pilots and so the question is if this is really the fate of commerce,
how will anybody make money and sort of will anybody make money
and the truth is, I think, that a lot of people actually will make
money selling things, but it'll be in a radically different way.
The value of an actual transaction,
I think, is worth almost nothing, so the actual act of selling a
Palm Pilot and delivering it, consumers don't value. Lots of people
can do it. What happens is that it's the wrapper of services and
experience that you put around the selling of the product that ultimately
contributes to margins, to whether people, in fact, are willing
to pay and so somebody like Dell who I think has done a wonderful
job, you know, you buy a Dell PC and that's great, but it's also
great that they send you an e-mail when it's shipped and you can
go on their web site and you can watch it through every step of
the development process and they've gone out of their way to make
sure that they have great help resources so if you have a problem,
you can get help from them directly off of the web site. It's not
the act of buying the PC that holds its value and this is particularly
true of commodity products like books. It's the experience of buying.
It's all the accoutrements that the web, in fact, allows and so
I think that in this marketplace which is truly global, which I
think offers enormous opportunity to commerce participants if you
think about what Wal-Mart had to do to be global. They had to build
it one brick at a time and there's still many areas of the world
they can't reach. Companies like Amazon and Dell can simultaneously
reach everywhere almost, but really the way that these companies
will ultimately make money is through web publishing, through a
lot of the same things we do. It's delivering a really great experience
for the user.
Thanks.
Snyder: Well, Jeff and Lawton,
your people have to size up these investments. What do you think?
Jeffrey C. Walker: We have
a great team of entrepreneurs here already and they made the miraculous
move in helping start up businesses and then staying with them and
that's not always typical in entrepreneurial activities and so that's
a feat in itself. What I find fascinating by this opportunity, i.e.,
the Internet, is that it's not just the Internet. It what it's doing
to every business we look at, how it's changing the way those businesses
are managed and the way they operate and it's in the greater global
environment. They know more. They make decisions quicker. They're
flatter organization structures. People are focused more on stock
and stockholders' value and that's not just here in the US; it's
overseas. People are now trying to make decisions in a less bureaucratic
fashion and making that decision first is probably more important
than waiting and analyzing it and making a decision when you have
all of the facts.
And so that changes the way businesses
operate. It changes the way universities operate. It changes the
way all non-profits operate and those that don't change are going
to fall by the wayside, and so when you look at opportunities you
look not just those that are pure Internet plays but even on the
ones that are basic business--how's the Internet going to change
them and it's changing the companies we invest in, in the chemical
industry, in the energy industry, in the telecommunications industry.
Actually, we think telecommunications in the next few years is going
to go through an equally large value creation exercise as we have
seen in the Internet in the last several years.
What are the opportunities and where
do you look for the next great growth path. Pervasive computing
which means the blending of wireless technology with the Internet.
Everyone's walking around with not just Palm 7s which are out now,
but wireless devices of all kinds and what does that mean? When
you're walking down the street and you can find out where the restaurant
is nearest you that has an available table or where the hot movie
is and you don't have to go on the phone or go on your cell phone.
You just click it up and punch it on your little Internet access
device, and those are coming out within months, not years, and what
I find is amazing is when you go to the conferences and listen to
the futurists, they're talking about, gee, in the year 2010, we're
going to do the following, and then you look at the investments
that we've looked at and a bunch of other people have put money
into and they plan on bringing them out next year, and so what does
that mean? It means you can't wait. It means that maybe the way
we do education, i.e., ECON 201 shouldn't be held as it currently
is in a large room and a lecture being given. Maybe it should be
on-line. Maybe we should do that next year and not in a few years.
Maybe we have to change the way we educate the inner city. Something
that we're spending a lot of time on.
Eleven percent of children in the
inner city have access on an ongoing basis to the Internet. That's
ridiculously low, and that's going to be a have-have not kind of
issue and that influences how you as an investor look at opportunities,
where we focus? Are we going to focus just on the haves? Are we
going to help bring the have nots into the system? So, it impacts
education and it impacts organizational structure and it impacts
globalness. Can we bring in this global community? Can we bring
people with common interests across countries together through the
Internet and I think we have and are.
I think we have to look beyond Silicon
Valley. There was a real parochial approach to looking at Internet
opportunities several years ago and looking just in Palo Alto area.
In fact, I still see that sometimes. I think we in New York and
in Virginia and Atlanta and everywhere else can produce just as
good an opportunity and just as good an idea and we're seeing a
lot of blossoming going on.
My last point is I've never seen
so many wild-eyed entrepreneurs and wild-eyed ideas coming through
which is great and that's what you look at backing people who have
enthusiasm and visions, but people are now leaving universities,
some of them being very successful in doing that in the middle of
their educational lives. Three guys just left a business school
I know of in the middle of the second year. One of them after two
months and one of 15 people, got an investment from Microsoft worth
a billion dollars in value, so, gee, that's successful, but is that
the right thing to do? Gee, they said they can come back and finish
school in a year. Is that gold rush really so important to put everything
else aside? Is this the only opportunity? Biotech 20 years ago was
the same kind of opportunity. A lot of people left and invest change
and evolved back into the drug industry. Is this the same thing?
Is this the only time we have to make money or build the new world?
Thank you.
Lawton W. Fitt: Following
on the wild-eyed entrepreneurs, yes, we certainly see a very large
number of companies and we see them a little later as they're coming
public and I think one of the very interesting things in the last
year is that we've gone from having probably something in a range
of 40 or 50 public companies available for investors in the Internet
space to a couple of hundred companies came public and the question
for investors, but also I think the question importantly for consumers,
is who's going to succeed given the enormous number of opportunities
that are being pursued, and I go back to something that Tim said
which is that the Internet is getting enmeshed in everybody's lives
and to me, the real challenge is to be where the consumer wants
you to be and the way that the consumer wants you to be there and
consumer can be someone who's a buyer of services. It can also be
someone who's looking for information at whatever time of day or
night, in whatever way, with whatever support that that user is
looking to find.
And I think the really exciting thing
about the Internet but the challenge for those who are providers
of Internet services is empowering the user, empowering the consumer,
so that they can make their own decisions and so that you become
a valuable part of their lives if you think about it, once this
novelty wears off, people, I think, are going to be get themselves
down to a core or a handful of providers who are helpful to them,
useful to them, give them information in a way that serves their
needs and they will go back to those people over and over again
and I think the challenge that we now face given the rate of adoption
is to figure out what that business model or what that information
model looks like.
Snyder: Okay. So we've got
millions of people in the catbird seat. Tremendous information.
A gazillion pages but Jeff, you raised an important issue which
is how many catbirds seats are out there. What kind of access are
we really going to have? And maybe Allison, you would want to touch
on this from the point of view of your unique company. What do you
see in terms of access? Who's going to really play? Are we going
to move to a society where some people are in the seat and a lot
of people are in this other category, the digital have nots?
Allison H. Abraham: Well,
I think what we really see is that, to play off some more of what
Tim and Halsey said, is that branding and that consistent experience
for the consumer is what's really going to make the company successful
and I think from our standpoint at iVillage, we also started very
early on the Internet with a company called Parentsoup, a site that
was really for products and have had a very consistent positioning
and understanding of the consumer really over the last four years,
and to give you a very real life example is one of the things we
stand for is helping people solve problems that are a real part
of their everyday life, and for example, in Parentsoup, what we
found within our community was a group of about 20 parents got together
and they really wanted to change the behavior of their teenagers
and they couldn't figure out how to do it individually and what
they did was they got together and decided that for a month they
would work every day together sharing ideas each night at a specific
time, working with experts, and working with each other to figure
out to improve their relationship with their children, just an everyday
thing, but the Internet really made that come together. There were
no geographic boundaries and there were ways to be really almost
intimate with people who you've never met or had never seen before,
and what they found after a month of doing this was it was very
successful and they felt they wanted to do it again and we watched
that model evolve and help facilitate it and, so for instance, to
give you an example of the growth is very recently we've run a community
challenge as we now call them and we had 56,000 women dieting together
every day, so they got their e-mail each morning about a particular
weight loss. They could have a personalized program for them. They
had specific expert and what has happened over this period of time
is that they've looked to iVillage as a very trusted environment,
very helpful and credible for them, and to Halsey's point earlier,
is that kind of trust and branding and environment where consumers
feel that they can get the information they need and really be helped
by a company like iVillage then facilitates all types of different
transactions to go with that and becomes a very strong environment
for advertisers and for commerce and allows the medium to not drive
just into a pricing and commodity kind of environment, so I think
what we're really seeing is the companies that are able to be consistent,
establish the brand, provide a very strong consumer experience will
keep them coming back every day and that ultimately integration
into your lifestyle is going to make the company successful and
right now I think we're in a position where there are many companies
feeling that this is an easy business model and an easy thing to
do and I think we're going to see a big shakeout over the next two
to three years in particular where they'll find that creating that
consistent environment and establishing that brand is just not that
easy.
U. Bertram Ellis: The entrepreneur
loves the business we're in right now. It's the most phenomenal
business opportunity I've ever seen and can't imagine trying to
conceptualize anything that could be any better and we'll talk a
lot about the business opportunities and upside, all of which have
been alluded to. Your question and my biggest concern vis-a-vis
the speed and pace and changes that the Internet is creating is,
in my own view, is as it affects public education. This academic
environment we're in here, I'm not worried about the colleges being
able to adapt. Some will do it better than others. I hope Virginia,
through its 2020 program, will be one of those that will. I'm worried
about primary and secondary schools. I'm worried about their organizations,
their school boards, and the like, embracing the change that the
Internet requires and the speed at which is does. I think Britannica
is a great example of what school systems have to look at it and
here's a company that's just not even going to publish the book
anymore, and how radically they've had to change to see whether
they can do it. I hope they get a better server [laughter] but as
our kids attended public school and I'm watching our own school
systems in Atlanta not change fast enough, those kids and those
teachers and that whole system needs to embrace this thing right
now and they need to figure some way or another to find the money
and cut out the other stupid things they do to get it into the computers
and the training and the systems at their school so that kids can
learn geography real time instead of using a 10-year-old textbook
that doesn't even have most of the world under the right name, so
I think that is one of the real challenges. It's something I worry
about. I think it's something that we can make a difference, a radical
difference, very quickly if our public schools will learn to change
at our pace.
Fitt: I'd take a related topic
to that and that is I'm concerned about the same things and I just
heard some appalling statistics about some inner city libraries
where the average book had been published in 1964 and that's what
the kids had and when you think of the power that is available close
at hand to get better information and better books, in essence,
into the schools, I think about the whole question of philanthropy
in the Internet generation and whether waiting for the schools to
do it is the right thing, or whether, in fact, given the huge amount
of wealth that the Internet has created and the fact that an awful
lot of people sitting around with an awful lot of money created
by the Internet, whether, in fact, it is isn't incumbent on all
of us as a generation to turn some of that back and provide some
of the leadership to the schools, to the education, to society overall
in terms of getting whether it's computers into the schools or Internet
access into the communities in the community centers and so on.
Now, obviously, some of that is starting
to be done. I think the Gates Foundation, Steve Case is doing some
stuff, Ted [Wait]'s doing some stuff, but I think one of the issues
for us as a society is the whole question of philanthropy in the
Internet age and using this incredible wealth creation machine to
not increase the inequity within the social strata but, in fact,
to try to level it a little bit.
Koogle: I have to jump in.
This is something I feel really passionate about. And Lawton and
I talked earlier about this sort of thing, but I agree 150%. I think
we are headed for a digital have and have not world. I think totally.
Cool--500 million users by the year 2003, right? How many people
are there in the world? It's way less than 10% of the world that
will have access to this wonderful seamless information thing, this
medium, and as many of you in the room know, when you have access
to information, especially current information, the rate at which
you're able to build on that and actually do things accelerates,
right. It starts with access to information, so I think unless we
do something radical about getting access to more people in the
world to the Internet I think we are headed for that, and I think
it's not talked about enough. We can sit here and actually say all
kinds of really cool words about it and stuff, and feel pretty good
about it. I don't have a solution, a tangible one. I think that
it starts with philanthropy but I think if that's all that happened,
it wouldn't get us anywhere. Actually, you know, if a few folks
or tens of people got together and spent a few tens of billions
of dollars even on this whole thing, it would be just a blip frankly.
I think it's grassroots and I think that worldwide, people that
do have access to information and do have a reasonable income have
to insist that our governments get to work on a local level and
actually build out the access for everyone on the Internet and so
I feel very passionate about this whole thing. It has to be grassroots
plus philanthropy.
Minor: I just want to add
a small point. I think everybody in the industry sees this, but
I think there's one thing that we're missing is that it isn't just
about access. It's also about literacy because what we forget is
that there' a huge percentage of our population that can't read
and the last time I looked, our services in Yahoo! and many services
are textbased. I don't think that's going to go away and so for
most of us, it's a keyboard and things like voice recognition are
a long way in the future and I wish it were as simple as us rolling
low cost access to lots of people. It's a larger issue of how do
we better educate our students and with or without technology. I
don't know whether technology's proven to make people better readers
or not, but I know if you're not better readers, you'll never have
a chance with subsidized access or not to be able to take advantage
of the web and I think there's a lot of kind of basic stuff that
has to happen in this country to ensure that that digital haves
and have nots are not created.
Walker: You want to bring
technology to the school system. I was on my board of education
for four years and in getting them to change in an area that had
probably enough money to make the change was arduous and so I worry
about a governmental approach to the business and what we have to
have is devices cheap enough that everybody can have one, and the
wireless world pervasive enough so that you don't have to build
out the wiring because that's what's very expensive and so those
networks are being built but a lot of governments outside the U.S.
are slowing them down significantly, whether it's in China or India.
They're seeing them as franchise plays and they want to control
them and that's the power and if you can free those, then you're
real far down the road in being able to empower everybody to have
one and make their own decisions about how they want to interact
with the Internet and voice is coming a few years down the road.
Maybe that's another empowering tool, but those two things--philanthropic
enterprise is so important and I hope everybody that makes the money
in this generation gives it all away because there's no reason to
keep it and uses it in a good way and you almost have to stop your
career by the time you're 50, because it's going to take a while
to put it back coherently.
Templeton: To a large degree,
the industry is its own worst enemy because it's built itself on
a platform of churning the same kind of computing intelligentsia
type customer over and over again so it's the same people that are
buying these things that bought the $5,000 PC, etc. and there's
a whole democratization that's got to take place and I agree. I
think governments are going to have to step up and really be a core
change agent on a worldwide basis.
____________: They won't do
it.
Templeton: Well, but they're
going to have to do it or they're going to die. There'll be some
real serious prices to pay. The build-out of infrastructure that's
required to deliver on going from 500 million to 5 billion is absolutely
enormous. On the other hand, some of the third world countries,
you see them putting wireless networks in from scratch because they
can't afford to pull the wire and wireless works, so this thing's
going to become a great equalizer but it's going to take some time
to build out infrastructure and it's going to take an industry that
takes a view that says, you know, we've got to start peeling this
onion back and start to give access to the digital have nots, and
it's more than just the cost of PCs. It's been tried--freePC.com
is giving away PCs but the only people that they want to advertise
to, so--exactly. So, I think pushing this into the school environments
because we're going to get real change by bringing kids along--that's
the real opportunity here and so I think is where the focal point
of the industry's going to need to be more and more.
Snyder: Not surprisingly,
I think we've hit on classic Jeffersonian question which is are
we going to be good enough to take advantage of this and what kind
of citizens do we need to have. What kind of society do we need
and what kind of investments do we want to make? Let me pick up
on another issue that I think is on the minds of a lot of people,
especially when you talk about business to consumer, and that's
the issue of privacy, and we've got some great experts here and
my guess is all of us would be a little bit surprised if we all
knew what the technology could do right now in terms of figuring
out who were are, what we're thinking about, what our beliefs are,
where do we live, how much money do we make, and how do we like
to spend it, so could somebody maybe inform us all about what's
the state of technology with respect to tracking me as an individual
user?
[__________]: Frightening.
It is frightening.
Templeton: The most frightening
thing about it is you can come to a conference like this and you
can put your name badge in your pocket and you can navigate around
but on the Internet you have no clue as how to put your name badge
in your pocket and hide your identity, so that you can feel free
to travel through virtual space, so a lot has to happen in this
space for ubiquity to actually be acceptable from a cultural perspective,
I think.
Koogle: I kind of agree and
kind of disagree. I think that the last sentence actually is where
I kind of depart. I think that's already acceptable for most people.
People are probably more comfortable with cruising around the web
and consuming all kinds of and buying things, than I know we would
have imagined four years ago when we were starting our business.
People have taken to it quite naturally as consumers and in fact,
I think the big bugaboo a couple of years ago was people would never
buy anything because they just won't get comfortable ultimately
with putting their credit card number in when they registered. Well,
it turns out they are, and part of it is a little bit of complacency.
It's what you don't know that you won't get scared of if you don't
know about it, and I think we're very aware because we take this
whole thing very seriously about privacy and maintaining it and
here's an area also where I'm sure having not gotten to know Bert
very well, but a couple of comments you made just a second ago about
governments won't do it after all. I'm one of the biggest cynics
there is about that sort of thing except when it comes to massively
taxpayers getting together and insisting on stuff. And this area
of privacy and security, we've done a lot as a company and we're
very aware of various government threats to get involved in a heavy
way in "regulating" security and privacy because they do know actually
the danger associated with it if it goes uncontrolled and stuff,
but something I'll loop back to in a second. Actually, when you
look hard at the role governments would like to be playing in security
and privacy, it ends up being pretty unfeasible and, in fact, somewhat
ironic that they would put themselves in a position of being data
collectors themselves which none of us want as citizens.
The state of it right now is that
there's a lot of technology and there's a lot of data and, in fact,
probably the silver lining in the cloud is that there's so much
data that no one really quite knows how to reduce it all to really
use it which is great. The amount of data is actually increasing
at a really rapid rate [laughter]. I know we struggle with this
a lot because we do-- For those of you in the room that are not
techies and stuff, when you log onto the web with your computers
and you go to a web site, you're actually communicating electronically
with a set of computers that that company has put together, and
when hundreds if not millions of other people go to that same web
site, they're also communicating with that set of computers and
so there's a central place where all those use patterns go through
and those are typically operated by the company that's either publishing
information or selling goods or whatever. That's what's called server
clusters and so that means all the data from all those use patterns
get concentrated at the receiving end, at the company's end, and
in our case, we have server clusters. We probably have 9 or 10 server
clusters now around the world, each of which is this big concentrated
place where a bunch of data is being gathered all the time. We collect
information because people register with us and we're not unique
in this. Tens of millions of sites do the same thing. They tell
us who they are. They personalize their information by saying what
they like, what they want you to give them, what kind of news feeds
to give them, and then there are use patterns. When they come back
and they use it, there're log files that are associated with all
those things. All that data is being collected all the time. We're
big proponents of self-regulation, big proponents of setting up
a trust relationship with consumers. We tell them what you're collecting
and what you're not collecting, give them the ability to opt out
of having data collected on them at the front end, and then maintain
that pact with your user that you'll never divulge their personal
information to anyone else and you'll maintain servers that are
secure. That's the way I think it's the most pure and probably the
only feasible solution is to have it self-regulated and have it
distributed and probably to have third parties and we already have
several third rd parties that, in fact, do offer a stamp of approval.
They will come in and audit your process to say you are adhering
to those basic consumer trust principles and put a stamp of approval
on your site or not, in which case consumers then have the choice
to look at the stamp of approval. It's kind of like the Good
Housekeeping seal of privacy and security on the web, and in
the end, it all comes down to that because consumers who are informed
and they will be, I'm sure, horror stories where companies and/or
sites abuse data, but it will be visible and consumers can choose
to not go there.
Minor: I'll just give you
kind two sides of this. We have millions of people who come to us
every month to download software so lots of companies who produce
software applications come to us to tell us about what they're doing
and we see often that these companies come in and they talk about
all of the data that once you download their software applications
that they're collecting and so if you look, there's a story right
now that's kind of raging with a company called Real Networks and
they have a music player and it is one of many applications that
does this sort of thing. They didn't tell you they did this, but
when you sign up you put in all your registration information and
then you start putting in your CDs and what it does is it takes
your CDs and it loads them onto your hard drive so you can actually
play your music off of your computer. What it also does is it takes
that play list and it sends it up to Real Networks so they not only
know who you are but they know all the music that you're playing
and that is the only application that's doing that. They're many
applications that are doing that, and I think that going to this
self-regulation point, I think the only thing that's worse than
violating somebody's privacy is getting caught doing it [laughter]
and if you look what's happened--they're been two lawsuits filed.
I think people will lose trust in you. I think your brand will be
affected and I think there is a self-policing thing because I think
people do feel that this technology can be very invasive. Now, at
the same time, there're lots and lots of people who are out there
doing this kind of thing and I think it's important that consumers
are aware of the risks of what can happen.
The other side of the equation is,
well, geez, a lot of this stuff can actually be incredibly valuable
as a user. We just bought a company. It was a very small acquisition
and basically what they had was a little client that you download
and it reads, it looks at your hard drive and it tells you all the
software that's on your hard drive and a lot of stuff about your
machine and then basically it uploads it to us. Now, the purpose
of downloading it is to give us that information and the reason
you want to give us that information is we'll tell you whether you
need to upgrade any of your software because if there's a newer
version that comes out, we'll give you tips for tuning your PC.
There're a bunch of different things. Ultimately we can tell you
what your PC would sell for if it were on our auction sites, how
much it's worth. There're lots of really kind of neat things you
can do if you're willing to turn over that information, but the
key is, as Tim said, whether you identify up front that you're going
to be extracting this kind of information and make sure that you
only extract that information for which the consumer has explicitly
agreed.
Templeton: That's the state
of the technology now is that there's a gap right now.
Minor: There's a huge gap.
People don't realize how much stuff can be--
Templeton: Absolutely.
Walker: There's two sides
of it. It's privacy but also protection. To me, on a privacy side,
people are worried about financial information and health and you
almost have to take a leap of faith in some other things like credit
cards, but the protection side we're pretty worried about and that
really slows down the systems. I know at Chase we've got firewalls
you would not believe because the fear of somebody's going to get
in and that really slows down what we can do, i.e., job __________,
video audio streaming. You can't do it significantly so a lot of
investment in software needs to be done but also probably investment
in protecting us from those digital terrorists that are running
around trying to explode the systems and trying to get in and penetrate
things illegally. I'm not as worried about the companies that we're
setting up that are going to have to have trust because you're developing
a brand and if you violate that, you're dead. I'm worried about
those people that come in unauthorized.
Ellis: With a non-attachment
based virus.
Templeton: Exactly. I've gotten
a few in the past. It's truly the wild west just in a virtual sense,
and just like the wild west, they're going to be some ghost towns
a few years from now where people thought there were going to mine
for a lot of gold and a lot of shoot outs in the streets and one
of my theories is what makes a service like AOL so popular-- If
you remember back a few years ago when the net sort of started to
get some traction, everyone said that's the end of AOL. Well, what
makes AOL work, I think, to a large degree is it's a safe place
to go. It's like going on a tour. Why do so many people, more people,
sign up for a tour to London than just get on an airplane and go
to London? It's because I'm going to a safe, secure kind of agenda.
Someone's going to take me through, show me what I should see, not
see, keep me out of bad areas, and I think that it's continuing
to give them a lot of strength in this world where you log onto
the net, your browsers, you point it out there and it's sort of
like yahoo, right? [laughter], or wahoo.
____________: Tim, I'll take
that. I'm getting a little advertising fees from this [laughter].
Ellis: Tim and I obviously
share a common cynicism for government, but I think the companies
will self-police. I'm still worried about the government all the
time and then this thing, is it Santa Monica where they're wanting
to deny banks the right to charge for an ATM fee and I'm just trying
to figure out how any government can feel that that is something
that they can do. Are they going to say that 7-ll's can't charge
for milk [laughter],
Templeton: So what are we
saying, Bert? Would you rather trust politicians or capitalists
with all of this? It's probably a good case where people have to
come together and jointly solve this problem.
Snyder: We've got a great
afternoon session to follow up on the privacy issues, but let me
try to identify another issue and I'll do it by thanks to Susan
Stein who's curator at Monticello. Here's an image of Jefferson
in his study. He's sitting in a chair, swivel chair. He's got a
book stand that accommodates five of his some 6,000 books. He's
writing one of his 20,000 letters. He's got his duplicating machine.
He's got his filing for incoming letters and replies, and he's in
the business of really-- It's sort of drudgery but it's wonderful
work, of building a republic of letters, international in nature,
and I think you can take that and say Jefferson would have been
a complete fan of the Internet. It would have made his work more
fun. He wouldn't have to do all that drudgery. He'd probably still
complain about the keystrokes but this would be perfect for Jefferson,
but today's Internet, I think a lot of people would agree, has a
different feel. I have an image and I think it'll probably become
outdated of somebody sitting at home, his or her friends are the
UPS drivers who drop off the goods every once in a while. Their
idea of the international Internet is to tune into the Worldwide
Wrestling Federation on the net or on TV and they're bombarded by
advertisements every day and I know, Allison, you have to encounter
this issue with your iVillage but I'd like to just get some comments
on the role of advertising, commercialization of the web and are
you comfortable with it?
Abraham: To answer Bert's
question, no, we don't have wresting on iVillage. Not yet, and probably
not for quite a while. I think we'll go in a different direction.
Templeton: I'm sure it's out
there somewhere.
Abraham: It is. It's probably
six months out.
____________: They have women
wrestling [laughter].
Templeton: Allison, go ahead
and body slam him right now [laughter].
Abraham: I think one of the
challenges we face is we are about improving peoples' lives and
we continually have somewhat conflicts of interest with advertisers
about that working within an advertising environment while trying
to do that, and to give you an example, is we have a money area
where our most popular area is "Deep in Debt" and it's about women
who get together and they have financial trouble and they're trying
to really coach each other with the help of experts to improve their
financial situation. Well, we have a credit card advertiser who
that is the prime place where they would like to be and will pay
us a fortune to be there and they will get phenomenal results but
that really is-- We actually ran it through there the first time
we went through and the community went into an uproar and we basically
pulled the ads out of there because we just felt that it was jeopardizing
some of the integrity of what we were trying to do from a consumer
base.
We've had similar situations with
formula advertising in breastfeeding sites and we've had a variety
of different things and it's just a continual challenge of trying
to make sure that you are somewhat protecting the consumer but really
making sure you've got a strong segregation between advertisers
and consumers and you're also always protecting the consumers' interests,
their trust, their privacy and their intentions on the Internet,
so I think it's a challenge we face. It's, I think, something we
will continue to face for a long time and it clearly is an issue
because of the nature of the Internet where the advertising can
be in your face much more so than it could be from a TV ad or a
print magazine.
Minor: There're a couple of
things. This advertising's been an issue for a while, back in '94
when we first started building CNET on line and the big issue the
commercialization of this non-commercial medium which was the Internet
and there were a whole bunch of people who were primarily academics
who were on the Internet who did not welcome the advent of commercialization
and we experienced it. I'm sure Yahoo! experienced it. I think anybody
who was in the very early days of trying to commercialize the medium
received numerous threats or whatever from various different constituencies
who really did not appreciate the fact that we were showing up and
that we were going to try to make money off this thing which had
really been solely for these academics and now there's a lot of
talk about .com advertising and we were kind of an unusual case
in that we spent very little money building our business. Last year
we spent about $380,000 advertising. This year we're going to spend
$100 million so we're one of those .coms and I had this early theory
about adoption of the Internet which was basically that no one would
ever just come to the Internet. They wouldn't say I just want to
get on the Internet. There was always something that would grab
them. It was like I get my stock quotes quicker. I can get sports
scores. There's always that one sort of application that was going
to make the Internet worth it to them and then, of course, they
would discover lots more, but advertising is about information.
It's about communicating new products and services and the fundamentally
successful Internet companies I have always believed are about challenging
the status quo. They're successful by virtue of allowing somebody
to do something in a new and better way, not just a new way but
really a better way, and so there're so many life changing services
that are being launched all the time that it really is actually
a great thing that money is being spent advertising and helping
people find services like iVillage or CNET or Yahoo! or the tens
of thousands of other companies that will ultimately affect people's
lives so I think it's actually-- I think it's a really good thing
that there are so many advertisers out there who are really-- It's
great for traditional media, of course, but I think it's also great
for consumers because it's the single best to actually find these
things.
Koogle: Let me jump in here
just a little bit. I think it's important like always to kind of
break the perceived problem into parts and take a look at it. I
personally think that you can do advertising-- We've believed this
from the beginning and I think in everything we do about building
our services is all about what I'm about to say. Giving access for
free as comprehensive a set of information as possible is huge for
individuals, right? And people understand in general that you have
to, if you're going to do that, you have to run a business where
you actually employ people and you pay salaries and you have to
promote in order to become more apparent to wider users and general
consumers understand this, and they understand that you need to
commercialize the business in order to be able to continue to do
it. You do have to pay rent and pay salaries and stuff.
I remember in the summer of '95 when
I came down and joined this and it probably was a day before Halsey
took Jerry out to lunch and made his fateful decision [laughter],
and we decided in August to put up advertising in Yahoo! and we
had a lot of discussion about for about a week and there was a big
fear that in fact all of Yahoo! would be boycotted actually by the
users out there of the Internet if we put anything up at all that
smelled like commercialization, but we reasoned that if you did
it in a non-intrusive way, if you made it really clear to the consumer
where the commercial message was and where it wasn't, so we weren't
trying to trick them, right? You maintain that trust and build that
trust relationship and the last piece is what's now known as targeting
and it's highly talked about, right? It's an age-old advertising
method actually. You put an advertising message that was relevant
to the context in which you put it, so you placed an ad in context
so the stuff you were selling was relevant to the content that the
user was considering that many times the consumer would view it
actually as value added, because you're bringing to their attention
something that they're already preselected into. Yes, I'm interested
in outdoor sports and so maybe I need a new fishing rod, so you
put that in there. It's viewed as relevant if you put it in context,
so you do all those three things and you stay religious about it.
You place ads that aren't intrusive. You play them so that it's
really clear in whatever form you're doing it, whether it banner
ads or enhanced text or whatever, that, yes, this is a commercial
message. Don't make any mistake about it. It's not an infomercial
going over the edge trying to portray it as something else, and
lastly, you're very careful about doing targeting placement in context
so it's actually viewed as relevant to the consumer, that that's
the right mix and consumers will go.
Then it behooves you to maintain
that trust relationship with the consumer. It turns out that if
you do that, that you bring the highest level of value you can imagine
to the advertiser because it's contextually placed so it's probably
more relevant and probably you'll evoke more consumers, right, if
you do all those sorts of things, and so we're big believers that
you can do it in the right way that's not intrusive. It maintains
a trust relationship with the consumers and it brings the highest
level of value to the merchants and that's nothing but goodness
but it does take constant work and it does take making sure that
you don't bend that trust.
You were talking about AOL and I
think a lot of people know that the AOL service even though it's
viewed as kind of safe, but there are a lot of pop-up ads, right,
in that service to pay for the low margins. We can get into a commercial
discussion actually about this. There's a reason why they do that,
but it's viewed as intrusive to consumers and if users have choice,
they will always-- Again, getting back to the sort of self-policing,
self-regulation part, they will go to sites and go to companies
that aren't in their face, right?
Templeton: I agree with that,
but I think I agree with you, Tim, this is a small price to pay
for the kind of information access and stuff that's out there in
general and I'd caution everyone to get used to it because it's
coming to your television set, so this same sort of model around
advertising is coming to your television set. Tune into CNBC or
Bloomberg and you sort of see the beginnings of that and it's going
to come to Thursday night whatever-it-is on NBC.
Walker: Who's going to help
pay for people getting out of the dorms or getting Mr. Jefferson
out of his chair because now these sponsors are looking at these
Internet access devices, these wireless, and you'll pay for them.
They're going to give them out for free and so what's going to allow
people who can afford it to get it in their hands and start getting
out in the world so we're not sitting in front of the TV and/or
the PC worrying about it. It also, by the way, floors me to think
about Mr. Jefferson on the Internet. What could he have done? Just
mindboggling.
Templeton: Ted, I think your
actually is telling of a lot of the attitude that's out there right
now in that we're using sort of old ideas to put a judgment on a
new world. I'm not sure-- You're suggesting that all the wonderful,
well-thought-out 20,000 letters would be somehow tarnished by a
banner ad that might run [laughter] and I would say that suppose
the letter was about voting and democracy, and a banner ad ran from
a local government as to how to register to vote. If this get backs
to what Tim said, what's so profound about this medium is that it's
bringing together transactional communication and content and so
there's a way to get content, make it actionable by a click-on an
ad that might actually explain how to do it and maybe even take
you to the transaction itself, so I don't think Jefferson would
be disappointed by that at all.
Minor: I still remember people
who are less today than certainly two years ago who were somewhat
cynical about the model of advertising on the Internet despite the
fact that both of our companies have actually proven that you can
make money doing it and the argument usually goes like this--I'm
on the Internet. I hate those ads, so I assume everybody must hate
those ads and therefore this can't possibly work and what I always
say to them is when was the last time that you watched "Monday Night
Football" and you thanked ABC for a 2-minute commercial break or
when was the last time you got Vanity Fair and you thanked
them for the 40 pages of ads you had to turn through to the first
page of edit--
[Ellis]: Or when is the last
time you watched PBS?
Minor: Yes, and so [laughter].
That's true, right. As a sponsor of NOVA, I actually watch it, so
even PBS now has ads because, we thank you, are one of them [laughter],
so and we try to be as invasive as we can which is getting more
invasive all the time actually, so there is this, and we as a medium
and we as company, we have this inevitable tradeoff that we have
to make which is between in some ways subverting the user experience
for the benefit of our advertisers so we can make money and on the
other hand, delivering a compelling user experience so we're valuable
and they want to come back and we have this real estate argument
all the time which is we, I think, are very conservative. We take
as little amount of real estate as we can possibly get away and
still monazite a page properly and have he maximum amount that goes
to providing the free information that we all provide, but it's
this line that you always as a publisher on the Internet walk between
making sure that you deliver a page that's really valuable in terms
of the information it has, but it also having enough of that space
dedicated, particularly what's know as above the fold, in industry
parlance, which means you don't have to scroll down and see the
ad in a way that's valuable to the advertiser.
Snyder: I think the best thing
right now is to take a break and we will, unlike most conferences,
use more of our time for questions from you so I encourage you to
get those questions to the people on the aisle and we will resume
in about 15 minutes. Thank you. [break] Again, may I welcome everybody
back to the session. As people are getting settled, I will make
a couple of comments. I wanted to thank my colleague Carl Zeithaml
for helping me sort through these questions. I think I just experienced
what Tim Koogle was talking about having data grow at very rapid
rates and it certainly challenging my ability to sift through a
lot of great questions, but I wanted to again welcome everybody
back. I see that some people are still getting to their seats. Let
me begin with a set of questions that concern the role of higher
education and we got this question in a variety of forms, but to
the panel, if you could create a curriculum for a class intended
to teach students at the University of Virginia to become you laughter,
what would you include.
__________: God forbid.
Templeton: John, if you're
in the room I have a 16 year old who aspires to be a UVA student,
so I'll put that in as a plug, but I think that the secret here
is broad exposure to technology and to all of the social and cultural
issues around change and then a good measure of teaching creativity.
I there're a ways to teach creativity. If you go back in history,
in Germany the Bauhaus figured out how to teach people creativity.
I think if I could design the optimal curriculum, I would bring
those three things together because as I look back at my career,
really, it's been a journey of getting exposed to just a tremendous
number of people, places, things, technologies, trying things and
having them not work and letting that go, not worrying about failures
and coming up with your next idea and charging forward in it and
keeping your eyes that way. Like I tell a lot of people that work
in our company, that's why God put our eyes on the front of our
head, to kind of keep looking forward, so that's what I'd suggest.
Ellis: I got asked the question
the other day about what's in the water down there questions in
Charlottesville ever since that article came out, and I'm not sure
you can actually teach creativity. You can create the opportunity
to be creative and to see and hear and feel and touch a lot of different
opportunities but the thing I go back to my undergraduate experience
most particularly and what I think is unique about this University
was the way they did then was to allow the students to actually
run the student organizations with very little monitoring from the
faculty and the administration. I'm concerned that there's more
monitoring now of some of these organizations, particularly some
that I were involved in than they were then which to me that was
how I cut my teeth on entrepreneurism. We had that chance to do
it as an undergraduate here with the University Union and PK German
and stuff like that and there were so many different opportunities
with Judicial and the Honor System and making your own mistakes
and learning how to run something and getting that feel under your
fingernails and once you've done it, there's no turning back and
that is a huge opportunity that the University of Virginia has.
Minor: Actually I think it's
a relatively simple formula--join a fraternity, become an anthropology
major so no one will hire you, attend three out of five classes
and choose your friends who take really good notes [laughter] and
I found that that's not only worked for me but a lot of people who
know who've become very successful [laughter].
Templeton: Then I guess that
would have to go with what's in the water in Charlottesville? I
can tell you--it's about 90 proof, I think [laughter].
Ellis: What's in the beer
in Charlottesville? It just didn't play as well, did it?
Templeton: An absolutely important
part of the University experience as it were.
Walker: You've got to talk
about the Honor System and it makes UVA so unique and it's the respect
that everyone has for each other and it's the respect the professors
have for the students and I think it's kind of like the Internet
in that at very few levels there are people that are willing to
be self-driven because people just trust you and let you go do it
and there's a lot of places that aren't like that and that's pretty
unique.
Snyder: Several questions
get at the issue of what frightens you the most. What would be the
biggest threat to the success of the Internet? What do you worry
about with the government? What do you worry about that the government
may fail to do? Tax the Internet came up. Not surprisingly, the
world antitrust policy.
Koogle: So let me start since
I bowed out of the other one. Let me make one comment by the way
as I see the dean of the Engineering School sitting down here. Let
me just say that the engineering curriculum here was just wonderful
[laughter] and
Ellis: You can check that
one off.
Koogle: Everybody in the College
should be required at least one engineering course [laughter]. Actually
it's only partly in jest. I think it helps a ton to have folks get
a ton of exposure actually to technology, so let me start on this
one. It's kind of a tricky area, right. I think all of us that run
businesses, that are entrepreneurs actually, I think the one thing
we all adhere to the Andy Grove only the paranoid survive kind of
school of thought and for those of you that have not read any of
what Andy Grow has written, he's a big proponent of this whole concept
of staying really paranoid all the time about your competition,
about shifts in technology, what have you. I'm an advocate of that,
plus and I know Andy pretty well and he knows that I also have the--
TK, me, I have this possum rule also and those of you from Virginia
know that in Virginia in the southeast, mostly you have a lot of
possums, right? And you find usually dead on the road and the reason
is they see the headlights coming and they're paranoid, but they
refuse to act [laughter] so you should be paranoid but you shouldn't
be afraid to act and we have that philosophy at the company. Do
something. Even if it's wrong, do something. If it's wrong, fail.
Fail fast. Get on with it is the whole thing. So, I stay really
paranoid about the competition and about shifts in the landscape
and will advertising really continue to work. Will governments come
in and try to regulate privacy and everything else and all those
sorts of normal every-day sorts of things, mostly having to do with
our competition and trying to beat each other out there, but the
thing that actually worries me the most is, and it hasn't happened
yet, but I think we all need to stay vigilant is that there is possibility,
there's always a possibility that either one or a small number of
companies who get control of one maybe core technology that everything
relies on [laughter] and actually there's more than one company
that potentially sits in this seat, starts to use that then to preclude
the ability of users to freely get to things on the web. It is one
underlying thing that keeps me awake at night and it's relative
to what it would do for consumer, what it would do for the industry,
etc., etc., so that's one thing.
I think that, of course, there's
a debate going on right now with Microsoft with the current case
going on about whether the government should actually wade in and
legislate some remedies, etc., etc., and this is a tough tough question
really truly. Everybody in the industry fears Microsoft. I'll just
go ahead and say that openly and at the same time, everybody in
the industry who's really prudent in taking about free commerce,
free trade, and I'm a big believer in free trade, also knows that
if we set up a process by which the government begins to heavily
legislate everything you can do from a product design and commercialization
standpoint, it will slow the industry down so you're caught between
those two things, so that's my nightmare--if one or two companies
who are in a position because they control a key technology start
to preclude open access to a broad range of things. Secondly, on
the government side of things, I am not a big believer in the government
setting up an ongoing process by which they monitor everything that
every company's able to do.
Minor: Microsoft is at the
center of this conversation and I fear more the government than
I do Microsoft. I think the great irony here is that in almost every
instance markets move faster than governments and so here we have
the government going through a lengthy process that will probably
be concluded in a year or two or more about whether Microsoft can
incorporate a browser into the operating system. It's over. I mean,
the debate is in my mind is completely-- browsers are going to be
in everything, including your cell phone. Why can't they be in an
operating system, so that's a single example and I think the great
irony is that I see Microsoft as embattled now as they have ever
been and I watch what's happening in terms of-- You know, it used
to be that nobody would invest any money in trying to compete with
Microsoft in the application business because they'd kind of won
that and smart capital was invested in companies that were going
to do other things that Microsoft wasn't a part of and didn't want
any part of it, and now you see hundreds of companies who're building
applications who're trying to replicate the very same things that
Microsoft does, including operating systems, huge amounts of venture
capital, lots and lots of smart entrepreneurs going into these opps.
and so I think they have a major strategic years ahead that has
nothing to do with the government. It's to do with the amount of
capital and smart people who are picking at almost every single
one of their businesses, so I fear-- As Microsoft has said all along
and I'm not saying that they've been choirs boys, I mean, I think
we all know they haven't who've dealt with them, but I'm not sure
that the government is really in a position in fast-moving technology
markets to serve as an arbiter and to try to remedy situations without
doing more damage.
Templeton: Well, Halsey, you
have to admit that the case that the government mounted against
Microsoft certainly provided enough friction for a lot of competitors
to charge the gates at a really critical time, I think, so there's
a counter side to this but I share your perspective about the government
should get out of the way in this stuff.
Walker: Microsoft should be
feared. They're spending $3 billion a year in research more than
I think anybody else in software and so they're running ahead as
they're fighting these other side battles, but I do believe. I kind
of agree with __________ Christianson from Harvard who's written
about disruptive change and he thinks most of these large companies
die of their own weight, and I'm amazed how quickly Microsoft's
turned several times in its life but it's going to a point where
it's too big. It will be broken up, my guess is eventually and it'll
probably make even more money for shareholders by doing that.
Snyder: Let me just maybe
go a little bit more into the science behind the Internet and put
the government aside. Do you foresee that the competition is going
to be over which proprietary software becomes the standard in various
applications or do you see much more as the open source kind of
community approach to the development of software and its applications?
Koogle: So, I'll kick off
and I know Mark's going to want to talk on his because what his
company is in business doing and what we're in the business of doing
also on this whole thing. I think it's a mixture actually to tell
you the truth. Fundamentally, there has to be some common-base software
that interfaces between the hardware, the physical stuff, and what
it does. Today we call that OS, an operating system, and browsers
could become OS. It could be merged with an OS or whatever. There's
some basic kind of software level or layer in there that in order
to get widespread adoption of applications and things you have to
have a common base and that's where the threat is always because
the OS has to be common and typically has to come from a rational
small set of suppliers in order for it to be effective and therefore
you do have pinchpoints, right, at the OS level, and at an application
level, what's interesting and I hope we can talk about it a little
bit this afternoon and sort of the commerce shift kind of session
is that there is a very profound shift going on right now in which
application software products, things you used to buy physically
at Egghead or wherever off a shelf, rip the hard-to-remove plastic
off and install it in your PC are turning into services that are
resident on servers somewhere else, and it's fundamental and what
that's allowing is a wide array of companies to write application
products or services, if you will, that are more open, certainly
more distributed in terms of the development of these things. It
is one of those fundamental shifts going on and I think it's nothing
but cool because it's stimulating a whole new wave and it is more
open than proprietary.
Snyder: Let me shift to another
set of questions from the audience that I found intriguing and it
might be just the nice Virginia audience that we have that they
tended to pick on a company not represented here, but they picked
on Amazon and basically the question when is the company ever really
going to make money and for maybe Jeff and Lawton, in particular,
how confident do you feel about the various metrics that everybody
uses to judge the path of these companies towards profitability.
Be nice now.
Fitt: I can't answer the question
as to whether Amazon will ever make money. I think that they are
clearly making a decision to go for market share and to invest now
and that is a decision that I think given what's going on in the
industry is entirely the right one, and I think the metrics that
are being applied makes sense as long as one doesn't stop just with
those metrics. I think that the question, the analytical question,
is not just how m any people are coming to your site but how much
business are they doing or could be they done and what does the
model look like as you forward and have you built a business that
ultimately can, in fact, make money and those of us who sat through
Darden School classes, we all learned to do discounted cash flow
and it ain't actually such a bad approach t o figuring out whether
these companies at the end of the day can make money. Now, you then
have to make lots and lots of assumptions about what is the world
like and how much money will people spend and once Halsey gets done
with them, what will they pay for their Palm Pilot and whether the
margin structure that these companies are building is one that can
be supported and I think the most interesting opportunities that
we're seeing are some of the most challenging opportunities that
we're seeing in the Internet world today are opportunities and T.K.
and I were talking about this before, like web fan, where, in fact,
it's not about the front end. It's about the back end, and can you
completely rethink the distributing of goods and services because
of what the Internet allows you to do in a way which if they make
it work the way they think they can make it work will actually ultimately
be more profitable than the current way of distributing groceries
and getting people fed, so I mean I think the answer is that metrics
are useful as far as they go as long as you don't allow that to
completely replace now what's a sensible business model thought.
Walker: What I find amazing
is that the last 10 years the whole market has changed so you can
evaluate future cash flows as opposed to current peoples, as opposed
to historic numbers and those are tough to look at and you can't
analyze Amazon by looking at its past in that the public is actually--
Individuals are investing more now in buying shares than ever before
and so they're driving recognizing growth. Are they over-recognizing
growth? Probably. Do we need 14 pet sites on the net? No. We need
one or two and that'll be a work out. Is Amazon going to be a survivor?
I think so. I mean, it's got a heck of a brand and a big investment
in building that brand. They've got incremental gross margin of
21%. They've got 60-day float on cash so they're making money there.
They've got shipping paid for by the customers themselves and so
we've got a business that's pretty interesting on the margin profile
that keeps on adding new businesses to it and that's why they keep
on losing money, but the sticky-- I don't how many people who've
ordered on Amazon, probably a lot of us, but this one click is very
powerful. This e-mails that you get saying, gee, you just bought
the Tom Clancy book a year and a half ago. He has a new one. Do
you want it? Click here. That's free for Amazon to send and it's
free for me to click back and say yes. That's a different way of
doing business and so I wouldn't sell Amazon short and I've had
the stock for several years. [laughter] You've got to disclose things.
Snyder: Have you ever tried
Amazom.com? It's a fun exercise if you ever want to try it.
Misspell Amazon.com. Put an "m" on the end instead of an "n" and
you actually find a site that competes against Amazon, but--
Templeton: Do they make money?
Snyder: I don't know [laughter].
____________: What do they
sell?
____________: Their marketing
costs are lower [laughter], but it's still the get a bigger truck
business model.
Koogle: Can I chime in a little
bit just on this one. I'll make it really fast. I think about this
stuff a lot, actually drive time and mostly fly time when the phones
aren't ringing and my pager's not coming off and I can get time
to sort of sit and think at the 30,000 foot level about commerce
and stuff and I think that if you look at the goods and services
companies sell and will sell and we'll be inventing more as we go
out in the next three to five years. We're talking about books here
and something that's pretty pedestrian. If you're selling goods--
It comes down, I think, to two things. One is a combination of the
economics in the business as to whether you can get to break-even
faster rather than slower, and second, it comes down to something
more fundamental which is the frequency with which you're interacting
with the customer. I think it says two things and the commish on
the economic side of things I think pretty often about if you're
selling high-priced point high gross margin goods that traditionally
carried a high cost of promotion and distribution, some or all of
which you can replace with lower cost of promotion and distributing
on the web, so you recoup part of those margin dollars, you're probably
in a position where you can to break-even sooner. Right? I didn't
go to business school, and that a combination is a way of thinking
about goods and services out there and there're some companies that
operate way out in the quadrant called high price point high gross
margin and high physical costs to promotion and distribution that
they're going to rip out by going onto the web and reaching a wider
range of customers at lower costs and they can get to break-even
sooner, but the interesting dichotomy in it all is that you probably
if you're selling that kind of goods or services, you're probably
in a less frequently buying relation with the customer and you'll
have less of a persistent brand with the customer, so you have higher
costs of marketing. I hate to get too technical with this whole
thing, but there is that combination to keep in mind and it is one
reason why Amazon is moving more laterally into other goods to establish
a more persistent buying relationship with the customer in order
to in the long term begin to drop their steady state cost of marketing.
It is one reason that isn't talked about too much and it's a really
good one.
Minor: Yes, that's great,
because I think it kind of boils down-- It's a little more complicated
than this, but brands you remember and brands you don't and so because
you interact with Amazon you remember them. Yahoo, you interact
with a lot. We thought a lot about this and it went into our deciding
whether to spend the money that we're spending marketing which basically
we realize that audience is so large because everybody on the web
as a computer and cares about technology that we're one of the few
verticals because we're just about a specific thing where people
will-- Our reach is enough and our interaction is enough with these
people that we can actually have them remember us. Now, if you just
sell bicycles, for instance, which may be very well be a high margin
business particularly if you sell your own branded bike, the problem
is that you only interact to specific about Tim's point, you only
interact every couple of years with them so when you go to buy a
bike, you're not necessarily going to remember them, so those people
are the people who show up at Yahoo's doorstep and our doorstep
looking for essentially distribution or advertising deals so they
can be in the stream of people who are looking for people who sell
those kinds of products.
Walker: And you're adding
your brand in the trust level.
Minor: Right. That's exactly
right. So, I mean, there are those people who are sort of downstream
of media companies essentially and there are those people who develop
and sort of cultivate customers on their own. I mean, Dell's great
success is that Dell doesn't make money by the people who call up
and buy off of their ads. They make money by the businesses who
just use them over and over again and they say, well, we need PCs,
let's call Dell.
Snyder: Halsey, let me continue
with a conversation that was directed at you following up on this
service wrap for example using Dell that illustrates the service
accessibility. They've been keys to their success. Given the technological,
these practices are easy and cost effective. The question is what's
the next stage of business or technology innovation that will give
product-oriented businesses their competitive edge in the marketplace?
Minor: It depends on the kind
of business. I'm looking at the software companies to go back to
something that Tim said and I alluded to earlier, these software
applications are going away. I mean, the ones that you buy from--
Well, it used to be Egghead but they're not really around anymore
other than as Internet seller and would install on your PC, that's
just not going to happen five years from now. You're going to go--
I mean, I'm being a maybe little extreme, but in a lot of cases,
you're really going to use applications that come over the web and,
in fact, you're not going to pay for the application part. You're
going to pay for the service part. We had this sort of epiphany
in our company about six months ago where we had been reviewing
applications like Excel or Word or Office or any of these and we
all of a sudden started realizing that it may be that three or four
years from now no one's going to really care about this because
there's this explosion of other things that are happening on the
web that do the same kind of thing and we had missed them because
we saw them as services and not software, but what they're replacing
is software, and so more and more of our economy is-- I mean, this
is a trend that's been going on for a long time but is it being
accelerated by the web which is more and more it's about the service
that you put around the product and, in fact, some times in software
the product will become the service. There won't be a product that's
left and so I don't care what industry you're in, basically everything
that we buy today must have some sort of service component that
is brought about by using the web in a novel and unique and ultimately
value added way.
Templeton: Ted, I don't think
the formula changes. I don't think the web changes product formulas.
Innovation is the only way that products can differentiate themselves
over any amount of time and I think there'll be all kinds of ways
to serve up applications. We're a big player in that space, but
the physical product. You're not going to be able to ship a printer,
for example, over the net and so those products are going to have
been-- You're going to have to innovate and make them better and
better all the time just like the world works today.
Walker: We have an investment
company called 800 Flowers and you order flowers on line. You can
do it be telemarketing or the Internet. What they found was it's
not two separate businesses. These are totally integrated and the
service mode was key to it because if you want to order flowers
you see on line and you have question, well, you want to click a
button and be able to have the operator live go on and answer your
question, so it's an integrated business approach that the Internet
helps but it's tied into how well you can distribute and how well
you can deliver. How well you can merchandize to them and it's a
whole-- That's the answer long-term, I think, for all the Internet
is the chase we're looking at is big time. How can you integrate
the old legacy approach with this new approach and make something
even better.
Minor: Just on the printer
example. What I really want in my next version of my printer is
since it's already connected to my network anyway and my network's
already connected to the Internet, I'd love it when if there was
a problem with my printer, that Hewlett Packard would call me and
not have me call Hewlett Packard or I'd like if it's running low
on toner and paper, for it to automatically let my supply people
know and, in fact, maybe at some point they'll roll it all up and
it'll automatically order for me, so I think services do become
a big component of every product.
Koogle: This is probably the
core answer to your question really. Products that are actually
pretty commodity and increasingly so, computing devices and things
surrounding them that are hardware, get smarter and have embedded
services or they don't. If they don't, the margin goes to zero ultimately
and so that's probably the next wave. It's kind of cool.
____________: Printers that
are ordering your stuff for you and billing it to your credit card.
Kind of scary [laughter].
Minor: ... that just spits
out paper all the time [laughter] and can refill itself.
Snyder: Changing subjects--focus
on kindergarten to grade 12. What could we do in particular, what
tools exist, should exist, to harness the web to benefit K through
12 students and a related question, should advertising be used to
support the development of educational materials for K to 12?
Ellis: The simple thing that
you've got to do to support K through 12 is you've got to get the
computers in the classroom. If you get the computers in the classrooms,
then the information's there. The teaching material is there in
massive amounts. The teachers have to know how to go get it. They've
got to have the computers and they've got to have the mandate that
this is going to be a platform by which they're going to teach on
and there's just got to be enough of them available to the students
to use. We found in our experience that I relayed earlier in Atlanta
and my wife and I funding media rooms for public schools in Atlanta,
we found public schools that said they had computers. They had computers
that didn't have 6s in the chips and didn't have mouse ports and
absolutely worthless boxes that were sitting on a desk, but that
to me is fairly simple. It's not easy to accomplish. It's a fairly
simple goal to get it started and I think that's something that
we have to challenge the school boards to do. The money's there
to do it. They've got to take it out of some other budget.
Walker: There is and never
will be one answer clearly. I think they need charter schools. We
need alternatives. We need a little competition in the system so
that we have different ways of distributing education and the kids
learn in lots of different ways. Each needs to pick the best. You
need the flexible union. The NEA is very powerful and it controls
curriculum decisions in many of the schools and we're going to have
to enlighten them how to be a big more flexible and how we're approaching
the business. We're investing a lot and a lot of people are in lots
of different ways of bringing educational software and product to
the schools, but that requires each school to have, each child to
have, some kind of access device and until we get to that point
it's going to be tough.
Templeton: I think the number
one thing that can be done is to focus on getting schools, especially
K through 12, out of the computer business and into the computing
business. There's some very interesting stuff going on out there.
Arthur Anderson has done some interesting pilots where students
get a simple little access device like this kind of thing that they
can take home. They can have at their desks. All the computing is
done in a big server cluster up in the sky and they can get their
applications school, home, vacation, wherever they are. Parents
can get access, and guess what? This is a computing appliance. It
has a long life like telephone. Back to your point, Bert, you went
and saw what they have--they have computers, they didn't have mouse
parts. Guess what? You can spend a billion dollars today and replace
every one of them; in three years, they're going to missing something
again, and that's a huge political problem as we've worked with
our local communities in Florida to see what they deal with here.
It's a big political problem because parents want computers in the
schools and what they really want is computing in the schools and
there's no good political bridge to walk across right now to do
that, but I think there's a lot of hope for that.
Ellis: Even media labs that
we installed 18 months ago, we found out as the schools were getting
the media labs, they have like zero budget to do anything with them
and they're just going to let them sit there and that's the whole
sea change that they've got to go through and I'm very doubtful
that any school board of governmental system is going to make the
sea change unless somebody really kicks them in the ass hard and
with some kind of challenge grant which is where I think, coming
back to the wealth that we as an industry are creating, we have
an opportunity to make a change if we will put some hard cash on
the table that you can't have unless you, the systems, make some
changes to get it.
Snyder: How much does that
cost?
Templeton: This is $1,000.
Snyder: How much is the Palm
7?
Templeton: $800.00 and $40
a month [laughter] but this stuff is all still like looking at petri
dish and trying to figure out what's going on. So, but the solution,
the answer's in there. It's in there. It's just picking through
it.
Koogle: Turns out the hardware
that's functional is way cheaper than that if you put it in schools.
I think it comes down to having teachers that are trained, paying
them right, and having at a grassroots level taxpayers that support
all that. In fact, demand it. Probably should fire half of the government,
take the money that's freed up from that, and pay the teachers twice
as much.
____________: What do you
need the other half for? Amen! [laughter]
Koogle: We're from Silicon
Valley but you could never tell.
Templeton: I want to say Yahoo
again.
Snyder: We've got several
questions about new technology and one is how far away are Palm
Tops with full browser capabilities and the reality of a wireless
nationwide infrastructure to truly support Internet access?
Templeton: Well, Palm Tops
with full browser capabilities are here today right now and you
get them in lots of form factors and this is one and this can do
about anything you want it to do. The wireless infrastructure, there's
a whole different can of worms.
Koogle: Yeah, and but, too,
at the same time, it's happening. Wireless devices actually-- We
rolled out this whole thing. It's a little bit of an experiment
with Sprint PCS in North America. It is astounding us at the take-up
rate on that and in the first three weeks or something, we had hundreds
of thousands of people asking for these things. The hardware works.
The interface works. It's a web-enabled cell phone basically that
allows you to designate stuff that you want published to your phone
sent there and with a lone mini-browsers baked into it and that's
one, and Palm is there. I think this whole wireless thing and the
interfacing wireless devices to the web is probably going to have
fastest outside of the U.S. It's going to be one of those rare unique
times actually because the protocols for cellular and for structure
actually outside of the U.S. are a lot more rational [laughter]
with GSM and the penetration levels in Europe and most of Asia actually
are so much higher than here because of that, but it is happening
on real devices. people are just crying for them and it'll probably
happen at a real high rate outside of the U.S. first.
Snyder: I think you might
have just answered this one, but let's pursue it. Given the Internet's
infrastructure was conceived in America and that most major players
are in this country, how realistic is the establishment of a truly
diverse global community, both culturally and economically. How
will privacy and censorship standards be enacted? What is or should
be the standard?
Minor: I think there already
is a global community. I think the thing that probably shocked me
the most about our business was recognizing that people from virtually
every country in the world were already coming to our sites in 1995
and '96 and so we all started with that as a kind of basic foundation
of our business. You look at our user reviews on products and you
see people from virtually all over the world who are kind of contributing
so I think it's sort of here today.
Walker: As Tim said, half
the volume today is overseas and it's going to be a greater percentage
I think in the future and we have Star Media we set up which the
largest portal in Latin America. It's Spanish and Portuguese. It
lives on its own. It's not dependent on the U.S. We have [Cinanet]
which is in China, lives on its own in Chinese. We have it in India.
We've got it in Europe. It's all growing without dependence on the
U.S. It was a brilliant idea when [Darbert] came up with it, but
it's gotten lose. I don't think the U.S. necessarily dominates it.
There'll be some common global brands. Yahoo's a global brand, right?
But there's also a lot of very local brands and we have one that
focuses on ethnic products, ethnic foods that's just focused on
the Indian community and they're developing their own access. iVillage
is another great example of a very targeted approach of global interests.
Abraham: For us, we have put
very little emphasis on the international markets so far and we
have about 20% of our consumers who are predominantly women coming
from every nation available and we're seeing that it's actually
growing faster, much faster, than domestic and we're seeing just
a huge opportunity in places like India where you just wouldn't
expect that from women in our age group.
Snyder: Do you see this becoming
a rivalry between countries in any way, and if so--
[Minor]: The French do [laughter]
Snyder: Who's going to challenge
the U.S.?
Ellis: The French do. Nobody
else does.
Koogle: Bert's only half kidding,
actually. I was in France on Tuesday and was there once again about
a month ago and actually talking with some pretty big dudes, right,
in the government there about policy and commerce and everything
else and it partly had to do with this business of privacy and security
and stuff like that, but it went beyond that pretty quickly. There
is a bit of a tilted kind of approach there in the country and always
has been, and it's kind of funny and kind of not. It's challenging
for them. They're kind of aware that they might get isolated if
they don't embrace a lot more openness. There is a cultural difference
that says that most things that get consumed worldwide should be
French, but that's forcing the issue. I don't think there's a solution.
What'll happen ultimately though is any country in fact decides
to slow down its involvement on the Internet it's like everything
else--the beautiful thing about the web, as long as we keep allowing
it to be this way, is it democratizes everything. And if you don't
take part, you will be left out and it will be apparent to the folks
in your country that you are being left out and they will go elsewhere
because it is a global network. The only times when that won't be
true is if you physically get control of the infrastructure and
refuse to allow any of the people inside of your countries to physically
get access to the web and in a country in Asia, Mainland China actually,
they've been actually thinking and trying to do that, but unsuccessfully
so far, so I think there will be rivalries between countries. I
think that there will be probably less success on trying to control
it on the parts of governments which is a good thing and ultimately
everything kind of equalizes around one common denominator which
is users want to be on this thing called the web and get access
to the information. They're going to drive it.
Minor: Our goal is to serve
France without ever stepping foot in the country [laughter] and
it great thing is I think we're going to be successful and so we're
simply just routing around. There're a whole bunch of reasons that
we're setting up shop and have set up shop in Switzerland and there's
great interconnectivity and so for a lot of these countries, if
they don't create a reason for you creating jobs, you'll simply
go someplace else and be able to serve their users equally well.
Snyder: Which countries would
you cite as moving along quickly beside the U.S.?
____________: Norway, Finland.
__________: Yes, the Scandinavian.
____________: Singapore.
Fitt: The Scandinavian countries
have been the leaders in wireless. The rate of adoption in places
like Italy of wireless and also of Internet is quite high.
Koogle: Japan has astounded
us actually--the take-up rate on the web.
Snyder: Do you think these
other countries are going to tolerate the kind of wealth creation
and wealth destruction that's happening in the United States and
all the implications for people? Jobs? Industry structure?
Ellis: Well, they can't do
anything about the wealth destruction. I mean, the transformation
of business. They can do something about wealth creation. They can
take it back as a government if you want to live in those places,
but they can't stop what the web is going to do. They can put walls
around it, but as TK said, it's going to come in some way or another.
They can slow it down but they can't stop it.
Walker: Germany's going through
this problem. Korea is going through this problem. Many people are.
They're losing lots of jobs. When you go to them and say, listen,
the United States lost a lot more jobs than you did last year but
it created even more jobs. You have to get in this virtuous cycle
and it's tough in the beginning. Japan's going through the same
issue.
Ellis: Germany and the U.K.
have got much more stringent privacy rules and use of data and is
impairing the development of local businesses that would do what
we're creating in the U.S. and at some point in time, I'm hopeful
that will get it and if they want to encourage more local businesses,
German-based businesses or whatever, to develop comparable technologies
and platforms and content to what we're doing in the U.S., they've
got to make their environment more conducive.
Fitt: The other thing they
need to do and you're starting to see it, but the other thing they
need to do, is have the culture of venture capital which allows
businesses to be built locally rather than having the people who
want to innovate come to the United States to do it and I don't
think that the government's approach, either the government or the
cultural approach to capital formation in really any of the European
countries has gotten to the point where they're going to be able
to compete with indigenous businesses without more encouragement
of funding young companies.
Minor: I was in Portugal about
nine months ago. I was driving in from the airport and I started
talking to the driver and asked him about high tech in Portugal
and he said the saying goes the only thing than a Portuguese worker
is a Portuguese entrepreneur and he then went on to tell me for
the next 30 minutes that why technology doesn't make sense in a
country like Portugal is because they don't like companies that
go out of business and there's a cultural thing outside of the United
States and it's really. I mean, I was just listening to him and
it was almost sort of surreal but he really believes this and so
what I witnessed which is so incredible is the number of Europeans
who've come to the United States who've started or are starting
net-related businesses and French, I mean, a lot of French entrepreneurs
have come here and started very successful businesses and I think
what the good news is from the United States is that we are going
to be exporting an enormous number of business models and companies
and ideas around the world and this is sort of the-- We've been
exporting-- If people think we've been exporting culture before,
just hold on because you've got Yahoo and we're the number one technology
site in Britain. We've done nothing. And we're number two in France,
so you see these American brands over and over again begin to show
up in some of these places, simply because the market for them first
here but there's also capital markets that allows us to grow and
expand very quickly.
Walker: We're exporting people
back though as well. We're backing companies in India that were
being run by Indians who trained in the U.S. and ran companies for
10 years and then came back and it's the same case in Argentina
and it's the same case in Brazil, it's the same case all through
Europe. That's what we have contributed, but watch out because they're
setting up their own entrepreneurial businesses now and competing
back against us, developing their own niches, so we helped, but
we set it off. I remember Britain in 1986 and important things for
the managers were the car, where we were going to have lunch. Gee,
I'm leaving at 5:00 o'clock, what's this stock thing. I don't care
about stock. Now, it's just absolutely totally different 13 years
later. It's on fire and it's the same thing country by country.
We're lighting these fires and they're going to continue to be lit.
Ellis: But it takes capital
and entrepreneurs and my view is that the capital is much more readily
available outside the U.S. now. I've seen lots more of it than--
Fitt: I think that's starting
to be true.
Ellis: The failure is not
bad if you don't lie, cheat and steal. Culture that we've got here
is just not pervasive in many many other parts of the world.
Koogle: It just takes time.
We're exporting a lot of capital too. These guys all know that there're
some fairly large funds that are being put together with both U.S.
capital and Asian capital to go into start-up ventures in Europe
as an example. These are billion dollar funds. These are not small
tens of millions of kinds of funds. We're doing minority investments
side by side with them so we have some visibility on this stuff
and so there's capital that's being put in. There are some entrepreneurs
that are being funded both here and there with this capital and
it just takes time. In the end, the world's made up of folks who
love to build things and succeed. I'm a big believer and I have
a lot of faith in human nature and it just takes times. It's a little
bit of time. It's generational to break down a few barriers.
Walker: The largest pension
fund in the world is in Amsterdam and they have historically been
investing in bonds and they just started investing in stocks and
now they've allocated 5% of their funds to private equity around
the world. Think about that. I mean, [Halpers] is moving markets.
[Decfirm] is going to move markets. That's what's happening in Switzerland.
The Middle East--lots of money now coming back in private equity
in the Middle East. There's been enough track record over the last
20 years that even long term earn good rates of return in private
equity. We're seeing more and more capital and also it's finding
a lot more uses. people are now building sea__________ and putting
billion dollar investments in companies that a venture industry
wouldn't have thought about.
Minor: If Tim's right, then
our greatest export's going to turn out to be entrepreneurship because
in one way or another, whether it's our companies show up over there
or our ideas show up there, it's really clear that our ideas are
going to play a much more important role in the value systems of
countries than they've ever played before. McDonald's was only a
start.
Snyder: Let me push this a
little bit more. So we're exporting our ideas, our brands. There's
capital. We're even bringing people from places like probably Bangalore
and sending them back to ready to do great things there, but if
you go to India and you go to lot of these countries, the governments
really like to pick the winners. They don't like fail fast so are
we also going to export laissez-faire capitalism?
Koogle: Ha, ha. That's pretty
hard. Pretty hard to do. So it slows it down. Slows them down a
lot. Those countries where-- You know, there's something that stretches
out the time cycle a little bit and you see this-- I used to a do
a lot of business in Japan as an example and you know there-- I
don't need to go into the history, but the fact that the government
and industry is pretty closely linked has a lot to do with reconstruction
there and that was good during one phase, but it does slow down
the formation of new enterprises, especially risk enterprises. However,
it is being undone. You go to Japan now and you find a whole new
generation literally of young people who have traveled broadly,
who have been educated abroad, who are coming back and starting
new enterprises and there's capital both coming in as well as from
the inside from my buddy [Moshioshi's] son,
funding a ton of stuff in Japan that were all nice little examples
of stuff kind of growing. There're other parts of the world where
the government is not to be undone as easily. I have a feeling.
They may just be a little bit slower in growing.
Ellis: The answer is yes.
It's just the pick-up rate of some governments are slower than others.
Walker: You've got to be careful.
Russia's the horrible example where they thought they leaped in
the right direction and they went the wrong direction, and so how
can you have an organized approach to becoming more free, more reliable,
more trustworthy but do it without having the cowboys take over.
Snyder: Let me return to some
of the questions. Voting. Would it be possible for citizens to vote
on the Internet? And how soon?
____________: Absolutely.
____________: Yes, immediately.
Walker: It'll probably be
a private company [laughter]. Private company will build it.
Templeton: There's a lot of
voting going on on the Internet today. It's just not political voting.
It's a lot of market research, customer research. You read an article
on CNET, did this fulfill your need and so forth. Those are all
forms of voting.
Walker: We have a company
stampstock.com which has a deal with the postal service which distributes
postage over the net. There's nothing that requires more security
than that, so certifying that somebody is a person, is the right
person on the net, I think is just a couple of years away.
Ellis: How horrible would
it to be to lose a whole day's worth of exit polls on election day?
[laughter] Think of the things this would do to us.
[Fitt]: They'll find a way.
Koogle: Halsey just managed--
He told us this morning actually, he just managed to get into Ireland
with a photocopy of his passport so how far would it be? [laughter]
Walker: Yeah, but that's Halsey.
He talked his way in.
Templeton: It would be one
of the biggest disasters of all time as well because we're already
seeing how miserable the results when politicians build themselves
out of pollsters and so this'll be sort of shortcut all the way
and we can sit here and press buttons and then leadership, statesmanship,
being able to make tough decisions that a democracy can't make many
times, so a lot of what the world governments are going through
today, they're caught in this massive innovator's dilemma that they're
going to have to figure out how to navigate through and so it may
actually be a bad thing.
Snyder: This e-summit is very
good. Does Yahoo or anybody have a directory of programs like this?
Koogle: A directory of programs
like this?
Snyder: Yes, that keeps track
of this kind of dialogue?
Koogle: A good question. I
don't know.
____________: Go to the net
and see.
Ellis: Academic programs involving
the net. I'm sure you can get a list.
Koogle: It's probably in the
directory.
Templeton: I do think this
is a unique meeting. However, in terms of the breadth of discussion
and so typically you go to an industry conference and it'll be about
sort of what's happening from a business perspective or a technology
perspective, but I don't think many conferences address sort of
the wide range from technology, business, culture, government, etc.,
academia, so this could be a good niche for UVA to jump into and
try to do something with this.
Snyder: Leads to the next
question. How should the UVA, that's us, change to embrace the Internet?
What should we be doing, folks?
Minor: I have one suggestion
which is I do agree with Tim about engineering, software engineering,
and if you look at a lot of the success of Stanford which has become
a model for a lot of universities. It's really built around the
engineering program and I think it the world that we live in, we
see increasingly the role that technology plays in talking about
all the services that build value on top of selling products. Almost
always they're technology-driven and so there're so many entrepreneurs
roll out of Stanford because they have such a strong program in
engineering, and I think it would behoove the University to continue
to invest in that area. I mean, I know there's a strong liberal
arts foundation and that's the reason that we're so successful today
in producing people but I think side by side with strong engineering.
Ellis: I think that over time
and certainly by 2020 that universities will become global educational
facilities and will have to invest in building their brand and positioning
what they are specialists in. Some schools may be specialists in
general liberal arts education but I don't think all the schools
can be specialists in that. Students are going to choose their university
on not necessarily going there, or they go there for 2-week periods
like the way that the Fuqua School teaches their MBA program on
the net.
Snyder: Who are they? Who're
those other guys? [laughter]
____________: The competition.
Ellis: We had this discussion
with Georgia Tech two weeks ago back in Atlanta and it's the same
time, that they're looking at what is Georgia Tech and what is the
brand, what is the University of Virginia, what is their brand,
what are we going to teach and how we going to go after an global
community to take our courses.
Walker: I think a couple of
points. Bring the outside world even more into the University so
bring them in through video conferencing and bring them in through
panels like this. Bring them in because a lot of the new ideas and
I think a lot more of the new ideas are now created by the outside
world than with the university environment which is different than
it was a century ago, and so we need to change the way we teach
and change the way we pull in and change the way we probably evaluate
professors on the amount of research they do. I'd rather evaluate
them and reward them for going out and meeting 50 key players and
pull together the ideas than coming up with that one idea. Number
two, integrate with other universities. Go out and see what's happening
at UNC and Duke and everywhere else and maybe share the great professors
and bring those into the UVA complex and send out the great professors
from UVA through video conferencing or the net to those universities,
and in a micro point, number three , a hobby of mine which is the
business plan competitions. It's been very successful at Harvard.
I think we ought to do something like that across the entire University
here where we bring together some great ideas and get the engineering
school to work with the Law School and Darden and McIntire and the
College and pull together teams that'll create new ideas and a lot
of these ideas get financed.
Koogle: I have to chime in
a little. I had the good fortune of going to both schools mentioned
here--UVA and Stanford and so I actually have a kind of a perspective
from that. I went to undergraduate school here and got a scholarship
to go to Stanford which is the only way I could afford to do it
since I had an old Volkswagen and a $1,000 when I moved there [laughter]
and I'll be a little bit more concrete, and I've talked about this
a little bit with the folks as the engineering school who are currently
in the process of thinking through how to make a lot more about
information technology pervade the learning experience here. There's
really three parts, I think. One is do try to build out the infrastructure
so that use of this thing that we're talking about so much today
does pervade the learning experience. You use the tools to do learning,
so it's woven into the learning experience itself from an infrastructure
standpoint. Second, don't dilute the strength of the curriculum
that you have students going through. What I mean by that, I can
tell you from my experience that I had a very hard core professional
training experience here at UVA that when I went to the west coast
surprisingly to Sanford which is some famous university and stuff,
in spite of the fact that I underwent a little bit of culture shock
there initially, I felt like I was able to run circles around my
fellow students actually, to tell you the truth, and so don't dilute
it, and also maintain the breadth of the learning experience here.
It sounds like mom and apple pie but the general education is something
that is falling bye the bye I think a little bit with folks with
universities that are thinking that they have to specialize so much
in their brand that they're actually making their education a little
less general and I think--getting back to Thomas Jefferson, I think
the renaissance person is hugely valuable, more valuable now than
ever from the standpoint of being able to navigate your way through
this world that's shrinking every day.
Minor: Would you add learning
to program as part of a core curriculum?
Koogle: Yes, I would. I think
in liberal arts I think actually weaving some technology in there,
I really wasn't joking about that. I am constantly amazed-- I've
got a technology background from a training standpoint and I run
a business that is for a user/consumer standpoint all over advertising
clients, we make sure that the technology isn't actually at the
front, that it's real easy, that it's not really about technology
from a brand standpoint but it's everything about technology from
the standpoint of how we do what we do and I'm amazed sometimes
when I see people and they struggle actually who don't have any
technology training trying to get their arms around building a business
that is everything about being technology-enabled and everything
else, and that's just about building business. In general, technology
pervades our lives and it's going to more and having fluency with
that as part of the educational program is huge.
Fitt: I would agree with that.
I think we were all forced to learn languages and I think learning
the language of technology now is as important as learning French,
particularly the entire world is going to English with the Internet.
The other thing though that I would say is within the context of
how do use the Internet, don't let the Internet isolate individuals
from one another. There's a tendency that you really can not come
to school and I think as one looks at the power of the Internet
and the cost of higher education, there's a tendency perhaps to
take some of the social aspect of education away and I think as
I've worked with Internet companies the thing which has most marked
them for me is the variety of backgrounds that people come with
and the really good ones, people listen to each other and have and
respect those different backgrounds and have an ability to think
together about where to take the thing and if you don't start that
habit of listening and learning from one another and having different
backgrounds early on, your ability to innovate will be, I think,
much hampered.
Ellis: Yes, but I don't think
the academia can insulate itself from the same type of thing. Banks
at one point wanted you to come into their branch and that was good.
I would like my kids and every student to have this wonderful 4-year
experience right here on the Grounds. Everybody should go in the
Rotunda. I would like them to all do it, but the world is going
to change and people are going to go to college at home, so you
have to be able to adapt to that and it's going to happen.
Minor: I think the scary way
to look at UVA would be to say it's a facilities-based content provider,
competing against non-facilities, so if Amazon started a university,
they would describe you as facilities-based content provider and
that they had a better business model because they didn't need bricks
and mortar and we happen to have beautiful bricks and mortar but
I do agree. I think the prudent thing is to really try to think
outside of the box about what exactly is the University of Virginia
and are there other ways to deliver the same kinds of services that
they're delivering today.
Ellis: The 2020 is how do
you deliver the Honor System over the web?
Templeton: Digital certificates
[laughter]. My sort of suggestion is to actually do it in the way
that is a mirror to the web and the phenomenon of the web. I think
academic institutions have their own political structure that sort
of gathers decision making and centralizes it and I think that the
way for UVA to embrace the web is by letting it happen. Build out
the infrastructure, make the money available, and then let a thousand
or a million or whatever flowers bloom by asking every single faculty
member, department, school, student, etc. how they're going to embrace
the web in their particular role in the University. I think that's
the way to get it going on a very broad front because if we think
that we're not there and haven't embraced the net at this point,
we are behind seriously and so the only way we can move the needle
there is to get 50,000 troops marching on the gates.
Snyder: This may sound self-serving
but I think that the University of Virginia is in unique position
to do this. This institution is more student-centered than any that
I know of. What you're talking about, Jeff, is I think fundamental.
It's building a learning system. It's viewing ourselves as part
of a multiple networks but the traditional model of the university
generating knowledge, dispensing it to individuals sitting in the
classroom seems really old after listening to you guys for 2_ hours,
but I'd like to hear any comments along those lines. What are our
strengths? Where are we weak? You interact with a lot of universities.
What do you see in terms of our competitive position to do this?
Ellis: I think we put out
a heck of a good product and a well-rounded student and it's because
of the student government and the Honor System and all those things
that pervade. I think we also happen to have excellent curriculums
and so the product is great right now. Now, the world is changing
so how are we going to change, how are you going to continue to
deliver that product, and in an increasingly impersonal world? And
that's the challenge, and because a lot of what the University of
Virginia creates, I think the type of person, the friendliness of
the person, the honesty of the person, the trustworthiness of that
person, is a function of being around other people. I worry about
the Internet-- You don't have to be around people to conduct your
daily life and how are we going to be able to get that through to
those people to choose to live more their life that way, but we're
going to have to figure out a way to do it because that's what's
going to happen. I don't think you can fight that.
Walker: I worry about Virginia
being too isolated still. We're down here in Charlottesville two
hours from Washington but you still don't have-- We're not integral
to the technology development thought process that's going on in
Washington. We should be, both at a governmental level for the country
as well as our state. The state of Virginia has a secretary of technology.
How linked are we with his thought process and maybe we can get
some more money for the school because of that. It's a great school
and there's great people with independent thought and independent
trains that go off around the world but let's bring them back.
Snyder: We are getting near
to the end and I'm going to invite people to make a round of final
comments. Mark, you want to--
Templeton: Thanks. I've said
an awful lot here. Well, like anything that's incredibly new and
exciting, there're always two sides to the story and I think I'd
just challenge everyone to not respond to the hype of it, but to
respond to the potential and the real content of it all around the
net. It's real easy to pour massive amount of resources into something
that seems cool without doing the proper sort of gut check, analysis
check, etc., and so it's a dangerous proposition, and so I just
think we all have to also keep our wits about us as wonderful it
all is and as fast as it's moving , we do have to make sure we're
keeping our feet on the ground at the same time.
Snyder: So stay paranoid.
Templeton: Yes, always.
Fitt: I guess I would agree
that there are obviously some issues around it, but I see the entire
Internet as a huge entrepreneurial opportunity we've talked about,
but also an opportunity to re-empower individuals in a variety of
ways whether it is in terms of helping them to get information that
they need, reaching out to them, voting is actually a very good
example of a way to get people reinvolved with government. I think
universities, and this one in particular, could use it as a means
or reaching back out to the larger community, to the alumni community,
and having one's affiliation with a school not stoop at graduation
but rather continue through a program of education and debate that
pervades one's life in not just an episodic way, and so I look at
this as tremendous opportunity through a mass medium get back to
individuals and serving individuals in a much more powerful way
than we've been able to do.
Walker: I see this us a leading
edge with a scouts, identifying where the new opportunities are
and the new ways of doing deals and I think if we always keep reminding
ourselves there's a whole set of legacy companies and individuals
out there that are not yet up to the level of performance. They
don't all have Palm 7s and tap into the net. We need to go back
and change those legacy companies who want to change and help lead
them as well as bring other people who aren't tied in yet. Let's
not forget what's behind us.
Abraham: I think it's just
a thrill to be so involved in something that we're counting in weeks
here. It's just over 200 weeks old from the beginning and I really
just encourage all of you to embrace it, not ignore it . It's definitely
here and to really think about the impact on the consumer behavior
and how much we can really together just change not only the U.S.
but just around the world.
Ellis: I'm going to steal
what T.K. said in terms of just everything we look at in terms with
regard to the web, whether it's vis a vis academia or business or
cultural issues at all, everything is moving fast so do something,
even if it's wrong. The postscript--I've used that one a lot. I
didn't have the postscript which I'm going to steal from you which
if you're going to do it wrong, fail fast [laughter], but the third
part is then refer back to rule one and get going again.
Minor: I'll make two comments.
One UVA specific and one just sort of a general one. When John Casteen
was up first, he quoted Thomas Jefferson. He said that knowledge
is power and happiness, and if think if he were alive today, he's
say it's also worth a lot of money and that really is what we're
witnessing in this new information economy and clearly the University
of Virginia of turning out people whose skills set map very well
and I think this program is a really a testament to that. What I
would say is that I think the University needs to look at whether
it's not a legacy-based business and I think really think outside
of the box because I don't think there's any institution including
government or universities who in some way will not be forced to
be transformed and I think whether you transform-- There's a lot
of value in transforming yourself and doing it first than having
others transform you. The second thing is that the Internet for
me goes in these waves of sort of epiphanies where I periodically
see things that make just holly cow, and I'm now in another one
of these ways where I'm just seeing tons and tons of new applications
which will hit starting now and over the next couple of years related
to teletany and business applications and those sort of things,
and the final word I would just sort of leave you with is despite
the fact that so much of what's happened is incredibly compelling
and life changing, that we really have seen nothing yet in terms
of what of the Internet's going to do.
Snyder: You get the last word
which could be very precious.
Koogle: So, I guess I'd just
say a couple of things really. One of them is a play-off a little
bit of what a number of folks here have said but I'll kind of wrap
it up in a different way. I did talk about the possum theory and
Andy Grove, only the paranoid survive thing. Let me just make one
statement which I really believe in which was Darwin was right and
I think we're at the phase with our industry--we can all comfortably
call it an industry now with the kind of numbers you're seeing,
where there is true critical mass now, and there is an industry
underway and that industry is one in which-- I don't actually fear
it getting sorted out. I think the process is well underway with
critical mass now that it sorts itself out. The Darwin is right
part of it that there are little mutations happening all the time
which you can think of as experiments and to some extent, all the
companies that we've started are mutations. There are tens of thousands
of them being thought of every day now that there's critical mass
because it's being run against a backdrop of something that is commercially
viable in which there's a lot of capital available, etc., etc.,
so it a time when we're past the flashpoint and I think that it
will sort itself out naturally. There will be companies formed that
will fail; some that will get consolidated and some that will grow
to huge companies and enterprises that people see as having value
out in the future but it's a Darwin process that's well underway.
Number one, I want to thank everybody
for inviting me here today and I understand we've got some afternoon
sessions. It's a big honor to be able to talk with folks a little
bit about what we find we're so passionate about and I will challenge
folks as I unusually do in public settings. Here I'll challenge
everybody in the room to think on your own about what you can be
doing to take advantage of this great paradigm shift that's occurring.
If you're a student and you're thinking about how to build your
career from here on out, maybe think about what part you can play
in it. Maybe none. Maybe as a user where you avail yourself of the
information using the tools. Maybe you go out and build a great
new enterprise with it or whatever. If you're a professor or an
administrator here at the University, think well about how you can
position the University to take advantage of the future and how
you might also in your role, because I know governments look highly
upon universities for their opinions, how you can affect our government
in ways to help further it more and if you're in general a citizen,
think about how at a grassroots level you can really bring the kind
of pressure to bear to especially take care of some of the stuff
we're talking about earlier to remove this sort of have and have
nots kind of barrier, but I'd challenge everybody in the room to
think as an individual what you can go do and build to make this
bigger.
Snyder: I'd like to first
of all thank all of you for coming. Thank people who joined us on
the web. I'd also like to thank our sponsors--PriceWaterhouseCoopers
and Fortune Magazine. This is an extraordinary time. It's
a renaissance time. I think the references to Darwin are, however,
very appropriate and I'm reminding of a story about two campers
in a tent at night being attacked by a bear and one guys stopped
to put on his shoes and the other guy said "you can't outrun a bear."
And the other guy said, "well, I don't have to outrun the bear.
I have to outrun you" [laughter]. And I don't Darwin said that the
strongest survive. It's the ones who change the fastest and I want
to lastly thank our panelists for helping us see that future and
help us to think about changing fast.
Thank you very much.
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