American Politics Day 2

Political Behavior

May 2000

Answer TWO of the following questions. Be sure to draw on and cite the relevant literature in public opinion and voting behavior for your answers.

1. Three decades ago, the prevailing view among political scientists was that "most Americans approach the political world innocent of ideology: indifferent to standard ideological concepts, lacking a consistent perspective on public policy, and holding authentic opinions on only a handful of policy questions." What was the basis for this assessment? Was it a fair one? What has become of this claim in the ensuing years?

2. "According to half a dozen political scientists who have honed and polished the art of election forecasting, the die is all but cast. Today, with 165 days left before Americans go to the polls, they are saying Gore will win 53 to 60 percent of the vote cast for him and George W. Bush."
------ Washington Post, May 25, 2000.

On what theoretical and/or empirical grounds do these political scientists base (heir claims? How valid do you assess them to be, based on your knowledge of voter choice in presidential elections? How can these predictions hold, in light of the fact that Bush now leads Gore by about 8 points in most reputable national polls? What does your answer suggest about the sole of campaigns versus other factors in determining electoral outcomes?

3. Citing concerns about the tenor of political campaigns in general and campaign advertising in particular, in recent years some have begun to call for voluntary or legal restrictions on what kinds of advertisements candidates for office can run. In particular, there has been considerable concern about the impact of "attack" advertising on citizens. Evaluate the case against negative campaign ads. Regardless of whether such ads should be regulated, what can we say about the effects of attack advertisements on voter turnout and voter choice? flow does your answer square with traditional views of the "minimal effects" of the mass media on American voters?