5 STUDY DOCUMENTS VIRGINIA FARMLAND LOSS AND DECLINE OF OLDER SUBURBS AS A RESULT OF DEVELOPMENT POLICIES RICHMOND, Va., Dec. 5 -- Unchecked suburban sprawl in Virginia's major metropolitan areas has led not only to decline of inner cities but to irreversible farmland loss and the deterioration of some older suburbs themselves, according to a report presented today to the Virginia Commission on Population Growth and Development. The study, by University of Virginia urban and environmental planning professors William H. Lucy and David L. Phillips, warns that unless the state and regions set new development policy goals, central cities will become poorer and more violent, suburban decline will increase, and some Virginia counties may lose all their remaining agricultural land. Examining in detail the state's three largest metropolitan areas -- Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads -- the study for the General Assembly-established commission paints a bleak statistical picture of city, suburban and rural deterioration. The report concludes that all three problems are linked by the same cause: "the growth of suburbia, and more recently exurbia, in a sprawl pattern." The decline of some older suburbs is now adding to metropolitan problems, Lucy and Phillips said. Their income statistics show some suburban jurisdictions, especially with houses built to modest standards and now aging in unison, are actually declining faster than central cities. "This report reinforces the link between suburban sprawl and urban blight, as the one drains vitality from the other," said Del. W. Tayloe Murphy Jr. (D-Westmoreland), chair of the population growth commission. "We need in Virginia vibrant urban areas and responsible stewardship of our rural areas. And we need a state strategic planning process to assist in this effort." Among the findings Lucy and Phillips cite to demonstrate the scope of the problem: ¥ In some of the Richmond area's oldest suburbs, median family income declined in 71 percent of the census tracts in Henrico County and 63 percent of the tracts in Chesterfield County between 1980 and 1990, relative to the median income of the whole region. ¥ The Richmond region lost almost half -- 47 percent -- of its farmland to other uses between 1959 and 1992. If current trends continue, as much as 86 percent could be gone by 2020, Lucy and Phillips project. And 100 percent of farmland could be lost in Chesterfield, Henrico and New Kent over the next 25 years. ¥ Hampton Roads lost 35 percent of its farmland to other uses between 1959 and 1992. At that rate, 64 percent will be gone by 2020. ¥ Median family income declined relative to the region in a majority of the census tracts in Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News, Hampton and Virginia Beach. ¥ Northern Virginia's population grew by 34 percent between 1980 and 1990, with several counties far out from Washington, D.C. growing by more than 50 percent. ¥ Even counting four heavily rural, non-metropolitan counties as part of their Northern Virginia study, 37 percent of the region's farmland in 1959 had been converted to other uses by 1992. As much as 66 percent could be gone by 2020, with Fairfax, Prince William and Stafford likely to have none left. ¥ Fairfax and Prince William are rapidly growing counties, but more than 40 percent of their residents lived in census tracts that declined in income relative to the region as a whole between 1980 and 1990. Americans' mobility helps make neighborhoods vulnerable to decline, with more than half of U.S. metropolitan residents moving at least once between 1985 and 1990, the researchers said. Automobiles and highway-building contribute to suburban sprawl, and private developers provide new opportunities for middle and upper and income persons to move farther out from cities, Lucy and Phillips said. Zoning and building codes limit options for low-income housing. "Poorer people gravitate to the older housing that is left behind because it is generally less expensive," they said. The problems are self-perpetuating, as crisis conditions regarding safety and quality of life in some areas increase motivations of middle income residents to move and for private investors and developers to build new suburbs. "Cities, suburbs, exurbs and agricultural areas are an integrated whole," the urban planners said. Revival of central cities is possible, if cities can be made more inviting and attractive, Lucy and Phillips said. Although major Virginia central cities declined in median family income relative to their metro areas between 1980 and 1990, some 10 percent of Richmond's census tracts improved by more than 20 percent in income. There were similar improvements in parts of Norfolk and Portsmouth, indicating small-scale central city revivals, they said. The most extensive revivals in older, densely populated jurisdictions occurred in Arlington and Alexandria in Northern Virginia. About 40 percent of their census tracts increased in income by more than 20 percent over the decade, compared to the region as a whole. Lucy and Phillips attributed the success of Arlington and Alexandria to the Metro mass transit system and good land development decisions related to it. But "regional sprawl consequences could be particularly severe" if inner suburbs continue to decline, as expected, they said. "Unless intrusions into rural areas are limited and developed areas become more attractive, metropolitan sprawl will continue for the foreseeable future." Lucy and Phillips recommend state development policies that would: ¥ increase inducements for current residents of all income levels to continue to want to live in central cities and inner suburbs ¥ increase population density in developed areas and provide amenities to keep residents from wanting to move farther out ¥ limit new development on the outer edges of populated areas ¥ require new development to be compact, with mixed types of land uses and housing for residents who are representative of the region's population. Otherwise, inner cities and older suburbs will likely continue to decline, and suburbs will spread into more agricultural areas, Lucy and Phillips said. ### December 2, 1994 For additional information Lucy and Phillips may be reached at (804) 924-4779.