RISK OF HIGHWAY DEATH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN SAFETY COMPARISONS CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va., Dec. 14 -- The combined risk of being killed in traffic or murdered by a stranger is greater in Virginia's exurban rural counties than in the high murder-rate cities of Richmond or Washington, D.C. That is the conclusion of a new study of traffic fatalities and homicides from 1990 through 1994 by William Lucy, an urban planning professor at the University of Virginia. Lucy's study shows that exurban rural parts of Hampton Roads, Roanoke, Lynchburg and Charlottesville metropolitan areas also are more dangerous according to this measure than the central cities in those areas. Exurban areas are rural areas beyond dense suburbs but within commuting distance of cities. These findings confirmed findings in a previous analysis of the 1988 through 1992 period. The new report also found a similar pattern existed from 1978 through 1982. "When people travel by automobile to work, shop, recreate, study or return home," Lucy said, "the encounters they have with strangers, or with auto accidents, are more likely to result in their death if they travel in low-density exurban rural areas than if they travel in the cities with the highest murder rates." As examples of high death-to-accident rates, Lucy said that in New Kent and Dinwiddie Counties near Richmond one fatality occurred for each 45 accidents from 1990 through 1994, while in Richmond there was one fatality for each 371 accidents. In Northern Virginia, there was one fatality per 58 accidents in Frederick County and one per 71 accidents in Fauquier, compared with one fatality in 453 accidents in Alexandria and one in 481 accidents in Arlington. "Ironically, the fastest rates of population growth in the 1980s were in the most dangerous counties. Many people say they want to move where the quality of life is better, including safer, when actually many are moving where they may put themselves, their spouses, and children in greater risk of being killed." Lucy noted that nationally, and in Virginia, there are more than twice as many traffic fatalities as homicides annually. He said that exurban rural areas are more life-endangering than cities because more people drive farther faster there. And with the recent trend to higher highway speed limits and the dropping of a national speed limit, exurban traffic fatalities are likely to increase, Lucy said. According to Lucy, interstate highways accounted for only 10.5 percent of traffic deaths in rural areas nationally in 1991. It is the smaller roads where most fatal accidents occur. Although the murder rates in cities, especially Richmond and Washington, D.C., are higher than elsewhere, only about 15 percent of homicides are committed by strangers to the victims, Lucy said. "When people leave home or return home, the unpredictable risk of death they run through encounters with strangers, or through driving mistakes they make themselves, is higher where they drive farther and faster," he said. In Virginia, the average driving speed on rural collector roads was 51 miles per hour in 1990, with 15 percent of motorists driving 60 mph or more, Lucy said. Death rates per 100,000 residents were calculated for 49 jurisdictions in seven metropolitan areas in Virginia, plus Washington, D.C., in Lucy's study. He found that there were 21 jurisdictions with higher combined traffic fatality and homicide-by-stranger rates than Richmond's and 18 that were higher than Washington, D.C.'s. From 1990 to 1994, the jurisdictions with the highest combined annual death rates were: New Kent 58.7 per 100,000 residents; Charles City 48.2 ; Prince George 39.6; Dinwiddie 39.0; Botetourt 37.1; Pittsylvania 34.1; Suffolk 31.7; Greene 30.1; Fauquier 28.8; and Goochland 27.0. Of 13 jurisdictions in the Richmond metropolitan area, eight had higher traffic fatality and homicide-by-stranger rates than Richmond from 1988 through 1992 and seven were higher from 1990 through 1994. In New Kent county, the death rate was more than three times the death rate in Richmond per 100,000 residents (58.7 to 17.3, 1990 through 1994). In Charles City, Prince George and Dinwiddie Counties, the death rate was more than twice Richmond's. In Northern Virginia, five jurisdictions had higher traffic fatality and homicide-by-stranger rates than Washington, D.C. from 1988 through 1992, with four being higher from 1990 through 1994. These counties were Fauquier, Clarke, Frederick and Spotsylvania from 1990 through 1994, with Stafford also being higher from 1988 through 1992. In the Hampton Roads metropolitan area, the highest death rates, 1990-94, were in low-density Suffolk, followed by York and Gloucester. Norfolk was fourth. In the other metropolitan areas, the central cities (Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville and Charlottesville) had lower traffic fatality and homicide by stranger rates (1990-94) than the exurban rural counties, as well as being lower than the suburban counties. The safest jurisdictions, with the lowest combined traffic fatality and homicide-by-stranger rates per 100,000 residents from 1990 through 1994 were: Manassas Park 0.0; Arlington 5.0; Alexandria 5.8; Manassas 5.8; Fairfax City 5.8; Hopewell 6.0; Charlottesville 6.5; Falls Church 6.7; Hampton 7.0; and Fairfax County 7.0. In the three fast growing metropolitan areas, the most dangerous jurisdictions from 1978 to 1982 grew rapidly in the 1980s, with only one exception, Lucy said. In Northern Virginia, the three most dangerous jurisdictions were Spotsylvania, Fauquier and Frederick from 1978 through 1982, and they grew between 34 and 67 percent in the 1980s. In Hampton Roads, the most dangerous jurisdictions from 1978 through 1982 were Gloucester, James City and York, and they grew between 20 and 53 percent. In the Richmond metropolitan area, the most dangerous jurisdictions were Goochland, Charles City and New Kent. Charles City lost population in the 1980s, while Goochland grew by 20 and New Kent by 19 percent. Lucy noted that during each of the three five-year periods studied, 1978-82, 1988-92 and 1990-94, Virginia's exurban rural counties had by far the highest combined traffic fatality and homicide-by-stranger rates in metropolitan areas. ### December 13, 1995 For additional information or interviews Lucy may be reached at (804) 924-4779. Copies of his complete study are available from the U.Va. News Services office at (804) 924-7116.