JUVENILE CRIME CONTINUES A DISTURBING RISE IN VIRGINIA 

	In keeping with public perception, Virginia has seen a rapid
and disturbing rise in juvenile crime in recent years, a University
of Virginia study documents.

	The juvenile arrest rate for all crimes is 30 percent higher
than in 1990, the rate for serious crimes is up 11 percent, and the
rate for violent crimes is up 52 percent, according to Michael A.
Spar, a demographer with the Weldon Cooper Center for Public
Service.  Although the national violent crime arrest rate for
juveniles declined 4 percent in 1995 compared to 1994, in Virginia
the rate continued to climb and was up 8.8 percent, Spar says.

	Reporting in the current issue of the center's University of
Virginia News Letter, Spar says that with the state and national
youthful population on the rise, a recent trend toward increasing
juvenile crime is expected to continue at least for the rest of the
decade. 

	But Spar adds that he agrees with U.S. Attorney General
Janet Reno's recent statements than a further explosion in youth
crime doesn't have to take place, especially if there is a
nationwide effort to stop youth violence before it starts.

	Spar, who edits the Virginia Statistical Abstract, says
arrest statistics and demographic projections "support the notion
that some changes were undoubtedly justified" when the General
Assembly recently toughened laws governing the treatment of juvenile
offenders.  The General Assembly's bipartisan backing of changes in
the juvenile justice system in 1995 and 1996 put in place "a new
model of the violent juvenile offender as younger version of the
adult offender," Spar notes. "But only time will tell whether the
new 'get tough' approach will actually succeed in reducing the rate
of juvenile violence."

	Among Spar's findings:

	¥ The number of Virginia juveniles (officially defined as
persons under age 18) will continue to grow rapidly through the
1990s, for an increase of nearly 22 percent for the decade. Between
2000 and 2010 there will be some additional growth but at a slower
rate. 

	¥ Juvenile arrests began climbing in Virginia in 1983 even
though the number of juveniles was declining in the state between
1975 and 1990. 

	¥ For the last three years the juvenile arrest rate has
exceeded the adult rate.  "It looks as though the juvenile rate will
continue to exceed the adult rate by ever increasing margins" in the
near future, according to Spar.

	¥ The juvenile arrest rate for violent crimes in Virginia
has exceeded the adult rate since 1990.  The adult rate has been
turning down since 1995 but the juvenile rate continues to climb in
Virginia.

	¥ In 1987 the juvenile arrest rate for homicide began a
period of rapid increase and doubled to 10 arrests per 100,000 in
the juvenile population by 1990.  The rate has declined since 1993
and in 1995 stood at seven arrests per 100,000 -- a possibly hopeful
sign that violent juvenile crime can be stemmed, Spar says.

	For additional information or interviews Michael Spar may be
reached at (804) 982-5585 or 982-5522.  Copies of the University of
Virginia News Letter are available from the Cooper Center at (804)
982-5704.
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December 17, 1996

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