ÒGODFATHER IV?Ó RUSSIA'S POLITICAL DECAY, MAFIA-LIKE GANGS ECHO
SICILY'S WORST DAYS, SAYS ORGANIZER OF YELTSIN VISIT 

	Russia's moves toward a market economy and a democratic form
of government are fine in theory but they won't succeed unless the
country first develops a stable, working government -- and that's
not happening so far, says Allen Lynch, director of the Center for
Russian and East European Studies at the University of Virginia.

	Organized crime and the laying off or corrupting of much of
its police and military establishments have made Russia similar in
many ways to Sicily before Italy's central government moved to
restore order there, he says. Private enterprises are hailed as the
nation's future, but 40,000 of these are controlled by racketeers,
some with links to organized crime in other countries. Four out of
five Russian banks pay protection money to gangs.

	Lynch says the simultaneous collapses of the Soviet Union
and the Communist Party had the same effects as the abrupt breakdown
of order in Sicily following Italian reunification: A sudden release
of property from a few controlling hands, unemployment, economic
collapse and a vacuum of power quickly filled by criminal elements.

	Russia's central authority is erratic and lacks control, he
says. Events in Chechnya repeat the disturbing scenario of the 1993
coup attempt that ended with the shelling of the Parliament building
in Moscow, Lynch argues: Government lets things slide as dissidents
become more bolder, then takes "impulsive" action and crushes
opponents with brute force rather than negotiate. When it acts, the
rationale is described in terms of "extreme patriotism". 

	Lynch thinks that a small circle of advisers is exercising
increasing influence on Yeltsin, and most of them have a stake in
slowing or preventing political and economic reforms. Moreover, they
have been encouraged by official U.S. reaction to incidents such as
Chechnya and the coup attempt. In each case, he points out, the
White House expressed support for Yeltsin as the best hope for
Russia and labeled the crisis a purely internal matter.

	Lynch is a scholar and periodic on-site researcher of
Russian foreign policy who organized Boris Yeltsin's first visit to
the United States in 1989, while serving as assistant director of
the Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union at
Columbia University. His 1987 work "The Soviet Study of
International Relations" won the Marshall D. Shulman award for an
outstanding book on Soviet foreign policy, given by the American
Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies. 

	Lynch is available for comment at (804) 924-3192.


February 23, 1995