VIRGINIA'S MOST DANGEROUS PLACES

	CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va., Jan. 18 -- Where are you more likely
to be killed in an encounter with a stranger:  in a densely
populated city, or an outlying, less-populated area?
	In Virginia, your chances of being randomly killed outside
your home are much greater in sparsely settled rural or exurban
areas, as a result of traffic fatalities, according to research by a
University of Virginia public-policy analyst.  And the least
life-threatening places, by this measure, are cities.
	Fatal traffic accidents, many of which involve high speed
and tend to occur outside cities, far outrank homicides by strangers
as a cause of death, both in Virginia and the nation, said William
H. Lucy, professor of urban and environmental planning.
	Richmond, for example, which has the highest murder rate in
Virginia and one of the highest in the country, is not nearly as
dangerous to your life, under this standard, as eight of the 12
other jurisdictions in the Richmond region.  In fact, the combined
traffic-fatality and homicide-by-stranger rate was more than three
times higher in rural New Kent County than in Richmond.
	Lucy analyzed homicide and motor vehicle death rates for 49
cities and counties in the seven main metropolitan areas of the
state from 1988 through 1992, using data from the State Police and
the Department of Motor Vehicles.
	In each metro region -- Richmond, Hampton Roads, Northern
Virginia, Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville and Charlottesville -- the
highest combined rates of traffic deaths and homicides by strangers
were in rural-exurban counties, Lucy said.
	With public opinion surveys consistently rating crime as the
gravest problem in the country, many people are afraid to leave home
at night, "because of uncertain but frightening dangers," Lucy
said.  People fear for their lives, but don't fear traffic accidents
in the same way as "hostile encounters" with strangers, he said.
	Yet most homicides are committed by people who know their
victims, Lucy pointed out.  In Virginia murderers are strangers to
their victims in only about 15 percent of cases where the
relationship can be known for sure, which is in 75 percent of cases,
he said.  Family members are the guilty ones in almost one of four
murders, and the rest are committed by acquaintances, friends, work
associates or persons "romantically involved," he said.
	In Virginia and the nation, the risk of dying in a traffic
accident is more than double the risk of dying by homicide of any
type, he said.  In 1990, for example, 47,575 people died in traffic
accidents nationally, versus 22,909 deaths from homicides. Suicide
is an even greater risk than murder, with 30,232 suicides reported
nationally in 1990.
	In Virginia in 1990 the ratios were similar:  1,036 traffic
deaths, 793 suicides and 577 homicides.
	Four of the five jurisdictions with the greatest population
densities in Virginia were among the eight safest places in the
state.  These especially safe and dense jurisdictions were
Alexandria, Arlington, Falls Church and Charlottesville.
	Virginia's 10 most dangerous jurisdictions under Lucy's
rankings, each of which is a low-density area, are:
	(1) New Kent County (Richmond area); (2) Greene County
(Charlottesville area); (3) Dinwiddie County (Richmond area); (4)
Charles City County (Richmond area); (5) Fauquier County (Northern
Virginia area); (6) Botetourt County (Roanoke area); (7) Prince
George County (Richmond area); (8) Fluvanna County (Charlottesville
area); (9) Suffolk (Hampton Roads area); (10) Pittsylvania County
(Danville area).
	Lucy noted that the 10 most dangerous jurisdictions had
population densities between 34 and 130 persons per square mile in
1990, while the 10 safest had densities between 2,069 and 7,267 per
square mile.
	"The belief that cities in general and dense cities in
particular are more dangerous than low-density exurban-rural areas
has been false in Virginia," if you count fatal traffic accidents as
among dangers, Lucy said.  In addition to high speed, traffic
fatalities often involve other criminal offenses, too, such as
driving under the influence of alcohol, he pointed out.
	Lucy said he hoped one benefit of his study would be to
remind people that dangers from both homicide and traffic accidents
can be reduced by safe practices and habits and by being alert to
the dangers.
	He said he also hoped that people would take a more balanced
view in assessing the dangers of cities versus outlying areas.
	"The irony is that some people, in choosing exurban rural
residential locations, partly to avoid what they envision as more
dangerous cities and inner suburbs, have traded one type of
vulnerability for a greater danger," he said.
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January 17, 1995
	For additional information or interviews William Lucy may be
reached at (804) 924-4779 or 295-4453.