Jan.21, 1998                
                                                   Contact:Julia Martin 
                                                          (804)982-5582 
           

            STATE'S 1990s GROWTH FOLLOWS I-95 AND I-64 CORRIDORS
            WHILE MOST MAJOR CENTRAL CITIES EXPERIENCE EXODUS
  
            The Virginia localities experiencing the highest annual
population growth rates in the 1990s lie mainly along the I-95 and
I-64 corridors, crisscrossing the northern half of the state,
according to an analysis of 1997 population estimates and growth
trends by the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center for Public
Service.
	And almost all of the state's central cities in Metropolitan
Statistical Areas (MSA's) have more people moving out than moving in
(Suffolk is the lone exception), while metropolitan counties are
generally the fastest growing areas, said Julia H. Martin, the
center's director of demographic research.
	The state's central growth column runs from Loudoun County
(the state's fastest growing locality) in the Washington, D.C. suburbs
to Amelia County south of Richmond.  A crossbar runs from Albemarle
County in the west to York County in the Hampton Roads area.
	Almost all the localities in the rapidly growing areas are
averaging 2 percent or more in growth per year and are in the
Charlottesville, Richmond and Norfolk MSA's or the Northern Virginia
portion of the Washington, D.C. MSA.  The exceptions -- Louisa, Amelia
and King William counties -- are contiguous to those areas and may
well be added to an MSA when the federal government next revises MSA
definitions after the 2000 census, said Martin, who co produced the
study with research analyst Donna J. Tolson.
	The few rapidly growing localities outside the double corridor
are either in metropolitan areas (Bedford County, Chesapeake city),
are contiguous to a metropolitan area (Craig and Frederick counties),
or have experienced growth because the inmates of newly built prisons
are counted in their population figures (Greensville and Richmond
counties).
	Outside the rapid growth corridors, the Shenandoah Valley is a
secondary growth area, with most of the localities growing at rates
between 1 and 1.9 percent each year.
	In the far southwest a group of localities that includes Lee,
Wise, Dickenson, Buchanan and Scott counties and the city of Norton
continues to lose population.
            "While many people both inside and outside of Virginia
still retain the image of the Commonwealth as a largely rural state,
it has not been mainly rural for some time," Martin said.  In 
1997 only an estimated 22 percent of the state's citizens lived in
non-metro areas. Over half live in two MSA's, the Virginia portions of
the Washington, D.C., and Norfolk MSA's.                        
        High average annual rates of growth are occurring mainly in
metro counties, which taken together have had average annual growth
rates of 2 percent since 1990, compared to 0.8 percent for non-metro
counties and 1.2 percent for the state as a whole.
	Northern Virginia and Charlottesville are the only two of the
eight MSA's growing faster than the state as a whole, while the
Richmond MSA has been growing at about the same rate as the state
average.  The Bristol, Danville, Lynchburg, Norfolk and Roanoke MSA's
have annual rates ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 percent.
	During the 1970s net migration into the state drove Virginia's
population increase, Martin said. During the 1980s net migration and
natural increase -- the two mechanisms of population growth --
accounted for about equal proportions of the state's gains.  During
the 1990s the tables have turned in favor of natural increase, which
accounted for 58 percent of the Commonwealth's 1990-97 population
growth.
	Virginia's MSA cities have been particularly affected by
migration out.  All but one of 14 cities designated as central cities
of MSA's have lost population in the 1990s.
	Meanwhile migration into metro counties -- the suburbs --
continues to be a significant factor in their growth.  Some of their
individual growth rates from migration were extremely high between
1990 and 1997 -- 42 percent for Loudoun County; 35 percent in Stafford
and Fluvanna counties, and 32.3 in Powhatan County.  This trend is
adding to the concentration of Virginians who live in suburbs, Martin
said.
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