94-03-07 The Growing Suburbanization of Virginia

THE GROWING SUBURBANIZATION OF VIRGINIA
       Virginia, the sixth fastest growing state in the country,  is
beginning to show a pattern of population growth in the 1990s that
differs from the pattern of the 1980s, according to an analysis by
Julia H. Martin, director of demographic research at the University
of Virginia Center for Public Service.

       While densely populated northern Virginia continues to grow
rapidly, growth is now becoming more evenly spread throughout the
state, Martin said.  More localities in all regions are growing,
and fewer are losing population than in the 1980s.

       The Center for Public Service's official state population
estimates for 1990-1992 (attached) put Virginia's average annual
growth rate at about 1.5 percent, roughly the same as in the last
decade.

       But annual rates of 2 percent and more are now spreading south
from northern Virginia and are found in many of central Virginia's
localities too, Martin said.  Growth is also more pronounced in the
Shenandoah Valley than it was in the 1980s.

       "This evenly spread steady growth is ultimately pointing
toward suburbanization of a huge part of the state," Martin said,
noting that some 77 percent of Virginia's population is now
classified as part of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
Suburban counties continue to grow faster than central cities.

       And "now the gaps are filling in between metro areas," so that
northern, eastern and central Virginia are beginning to appear as
one continuous growth area, rather than a simple "golden crescent"
of growth between northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

       Other points Martin makes:

       Whereas 49 localities, mostly in southern and western
Virginia, lost population in the 1980s, only 19 are still losing
population in the 1990s.  Those still losing are mostly in southern
Virginia.

       The Fredericksburg area is the fastest growing section of the
state, gaining population at twice the rate of its nearest
competitor, northern Virginia.  The Fredericksburg area also has
the highest rate of net migration (more people moving in than out)
-- more than twice the rate of any other area.

       For the state as a whole, net migration accounted for roughly
half the population growth during the 1970s and 1980s and is still
a strong factor.  But births are accounting for slightly more than
half the growth in the 1990s.  In some areas, retirees moving in
are a factor.

       Virginia, with an estimated 1992 population of 6,394,000, is
the 12th most populous state in the country.  It's estimated growth
of 207,000 new residents from 1990 to 1992 is the sixth highest
numerical figure for the period in the nation.  Virginia's rate of
growth is increasing too and ranks 16th in the country.

       For additional information or interviews Julia Martin may be
reached at (904) 982-5582 or 982-5522.

                                                                             
    March 7, 1994

[Submitted by: Karen A. Castle  (kac@uva.pcmail.virginia.edu)
               Mon, 21 Mar 94 15:43:22 EST]