March 2, 1998
                                   		Contact:  Bob Brickhouse
				 		          (804) 924-6856  

PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT GROWTH WILL SOON SLOW OR REVERSE IN MANY
AREAS OF VIRGINIA

        The enrollment growth that has strained Virginia's public
schools in recent years will soon slow dramatically in many
areas, according to projections from the University of Virginia's
Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.  Total enrollment in
Virginia's elementary grades will actually begin falling in 2000
for the first time since 1983.  The slowdown in growth, a result
of the baby-boom generation's ending its peak childbearing period
and fewer people moving into the state, will eventually ripple
through the higher grades, said center demographer Michael Spar,
author of the study.  Many of the state's metro county school
divisions are projected to keep growing at least moderately, some
rapidly.  But all school districts should be aware that even as
they plan for meeting the needs of today's large enrollments,
"heavy growth isn't going to go on forever," Spar said.  "The
baby boom ended and now the baby boom 'echo' is ending.  Some
schools are going to have unneeded classroom space and less money
for instruction," because state funding is based on average daily
enrollment.

       Since 1990, annual enrollment increases have averaged
about 15,700 students per year for the state as a whole.  The
next two years will see increases of only about half that amount
and by the 2000-01 school year enrollment growth will fall to
less than 4,000 new students a year, according to the center's
projections.  In the next five years Virginia will add only
25,000 new students to its current 1.1 million total, whereas
64,500 new students were gained in the previous five years.
Changes in the number of children enrolled in elementary school
-- kindergarten through grade 6 -- foreshadow the changes that
will affect total enrollment. Elementary enrollment will begin
falling in the 2001-02 school year and continue to decline, Spar
said.


	Some 40 of the state's 132 school divisions will see
significant population reductions by 2002. They are scattered
throughout the state, with a high concentration in Southwest
Virginia, an area that has been losing population for a number of
years.  Sixteen of the state's 40 city school divisions also will
lose students.  Ãœà and 2002-03.  Almost all are located
in and around the state's three major metro areas -- Northern
Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads.  Heading the list that
should continue rapid growth are Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince
William counties.
					###
	Michael Spar may be reached at (804) 982-5585. 
	
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U.Va. news online: http://www.virginia.edu/topnews
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