U.VA. POLL SHOWS ROBB-COURIC STATE SENATE RACE TOO
	CLOSE TO CALL; EDUCATION, ALLEN POPULARITY KEY ISSUES

	CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va., Oct. 21 -- A new poll by the
University of Virginia's Center for Survey Research indicates that
incumbent Republican Ed Robb and Democratic challenger Emily Couric
are in a close contest in Virginia's 25th district state senate
campaign, with independent Donal Day and Libertarian Eric Strzepek
lagging far behind the two front-runners.  Conducted by students in
the Departments of Government and Foreign Affairs and Sociology, the
poll found that 43 percent of the 844 registered voters surveyed
supported Couric and 39 percent favored Robb, with 15 percent
undecided.  Three percent supported Day and under 1 percent
supported Strzepek.  The margin between Couric and Robb is within
the poll's range of sampling error.
	Couric is running particularly well in the Democratic
stronghold of Charlottesville, the poll showed, leading Robb by a 47
percent to 30 percent margin,.  Robb leads in more Republican
leaning Greene, Nelson and Madison counties by 46 percent to 33
percent.  The election's swing area is likely to be Albemarle
County, which contains about half of the district's registered
voters, and the poll shows Couric currently leading Robb in the
county by 46 percent to 39 percent. 
	"The fact that Couric is running so well in an area that
gave Robb a majority of its votes in his last election has to be
encouraging for her campaign," said Steven E. Finkel, professor of
government and foreign affairs, whose class participated in the
poll.  "Ed Robb has to bring his partisans in Albemarle back into
the fold."
	Analyses of the strength and sources of the candidates'
support reveal several reasons why the race is now deadlocked.
	"Couric is benefitting tremendously from her emphasis on the
education issue, as our survey found that a full 70 percent of the
district's voters believe the state is spending too little on
education," said Mark S. Jendrysik, research associate at the Center
for Survey Research.  "Robb's emphasis on the crime issue is having
less of an effect, because only 39 percent of district voters
support more spending on crime prevention."
	Robb's winning issue appears to be his stance against
allowing the City of Charlottesville to revert to town status.
Close to half of all voters in Charlottesville and Albemarle County
believe the area would not be better off if Charlottesville became a
town within the county.  Robb captures about half of these voters,
while Couric leads among the smaller number of supporters of town
reversion and those who have no opinion on the issue.
	The candidates also receive mixed electoral benefits from
their affiliation with state and national political figures.
District voters generally approve of Virginia Governor George
Allen's performance in office, and Ed Robb receives the support of
59 percent of these voters.
	Working in Couric's favor is the relative unpopularity of
the Republican leadership in the U.S. Congress:  56 percent of
district voters disapprove of the performance of the Republicans in
Congress, and Couric receives the support of over 60 percent of
these voters.
	"It is in Robb's interest to turn this election into a
referendum on George Allen and his performance at the state level,
while Couric could benefit by linking Robb with unpopular national
leaders," said Finkel.
	The survey also found a substantial gender gap in candidate
preference, with Couric leading Robb 48 percent to 36 percent among
women voters and Robb leading Couric by 44 percent to 36 percent
among men.  Other demographic differences were less pronounced, with
Couric running strongest among voters with advanced educational
degrees and among African American voters, and Robb enjoying the
support of older voters and those who identify themselves as
strongly religious.
	The telephone poll of 844 randomly dialed registered voters
in the 25th state senate district was conducted between Oct. 10 and
Oct. 18.  It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.4
percentage points.  If the entire population could be surveyed,
chances are 95 in 100 that the results would be in this range.  For
questions asked of subsections of the sample the error margin is
greater.
	The results were weighted to reflect the proportion of men
and women among the district's registered voters, and the proportion
of registered voters who reside in Charlottesville, Albemarle
County, and Nelson, Greene and Madison Counties.
	Registered voters from the 25th district who reside in
Orange County (just 4.4 percent) were not interviewed, but the
weighting of results from Nelson, Greene and Madison was adjusted to
reflect the county's contribution to the district's population.
	Students in Finkel's course in American Public Opinion and
Ms. Dawn Baunach's sociology research workshop participated in
planning the survey and conducting the interviews using CSR's
Computer-Aided Telephone Interviewing system.  The cost of carrying
out the survey was shared by the department of government and
foreign affairs, the department of sociology and CSR.
###
October 20, 1995
CONTACTS:  
Steven E. Finkel, professor, department of government and foreign
affairs, U.Va., (804) 924 6994

Mark S. Jendrysik, research associate, Center for Survey Research,
U.Va., (804) 924-7965

Thomas M. Guterbock, director, Center for Survey Research, associate
professor, department of sociology, U.Va., (804) 924-6516