CLINTON LEADS DOLE IN CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA,
U.VA. POLL SHOWS

     CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA., Oct. 23 -- President Bill Clinton holds a
substantial lead over challenger Bob Dole in the
Charlottesville-Albemarle area, according to a recent survey of 889
registered voters.  The poll, conducted by students in two
University of Virginia classes through the University's Center for
Survey Research, found that 49 percent of area voters currently
favor Clinton, with 37 percent supporting Dole, and 4 percent
supporting Reform Party candidate Ross Perot.  Eight percent of
voters are still undecided, and the remaining 2 percent support
other minor party candidates such as Green Party candidate Ralph
Nader and Libertarian Harry Browne.
     Clinton is running particularly well in the Democratic
stronghold of Charlottesville, leading Dole by a 56 percent to 30
percent margin.  The President also holds a 46 percent to 41 percent
lead in Albemarle County, a traditionally more Republican-leaning
area.
     "Support for Bob Dole in Albemarle is down about five points
from what former President George Bush received in 1992, said Steven
E. Finkel, professor of government and foreign affairs, whose class
participated in the poll.  "The fact that Dole is struggling to
shore up historically-Republican areas this close to the election
has to be extremely discouraging for his campaign."
     Analyses of the sources of the candidates' support reveal
several reasons why President Clinton is running strongly in the
region.  Clinton holds commanding leads among political Independents
(48 to 36 percent) and ideological moderates (53 to 35 percent), the
two largest blocs of "swing" voters in the electorate.
     "As in past elections, voters in the middle of the political
spectrum hold the key to electoral success," Finkel said.  "Well
over half of these voters approve of Bill Clinton's performance as 
more
U.VA. POLL -- PAGE 2
president, and this is translating directly into electoral support."
Clinton's support also stems from the relative unpopularity of the
Republican Congress, and perceptions among area residents that the
national economy is improving.  Only 39 percent of area voters
approve of the performance of the Congress, compared to a 57 percent
approval rating for the president.  Area voters also tend to think
that the national economy is better off than a year ago (38 percent)
than worse off (14 percent), and President Clinton receives the
support of nearly three-quarters of the former group.
     The survey also found a substantial gender gap in candidate
preference, with Clinton leading Dole 54 percent to 32 percent among
women voters, but only by a 45 percent to 42 percent margin among
men.  Further analyses showed that the president is running
particularly well among women with household incomes of less than
$30,000 (65 to 43 percent) and among single women (66 to 42
percent), while Dole is leading by smaller margins among married men
(45 to 41 percent) and male voters with household incomes of over
$60,000 (49 to 41 percent).
     "Women in the area are relatively more skeptical about Dole's
tax plan, they are relatively more liberal on racial and cultural
issues, and the evaluate House Speaker Newt Gingrich more negatively
than do men," Finkel said.  "All of these factors add up to a
sizeable gender gap."
     Still, the poll revealed several positive findings regarding
Dole's candidacy.  Area voters perceive the Republican challenger as
much more trustworthy than the President (65 to 15 percent), and
Dole also rates slightly higher on perceived strength of
leadership.  Finkel also noted that Independents and political
moderates are more volatile in their preferences than committed
partisans, and Dole may make some headway among these "swing" voters
by continuing to stress the themes of personal trust and integrity
over the next several weeks.
     The telephone poll of 889 randomly-dialed registered voters in
the area was conducted between Wednesday, Oct. 2 and Monday, Oct.
14.  It has an overall statistical margin of error of plus or minus
3.3 percentage points.  If the entire population could be surveyed,
chances are 95 in 100 that more
U.VA. POLL -- PAGE 3
the results would be in this range.  The results were weighted to
reflect the proportion of men 
and women among the area's registered voters.  Students in Finkel's
course in American Public Opinion and Daniel Johnson's Sociology
Research Workshop participated in planning the survey and conducting
the interviews using CSR's Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing
system.
###

CONTACTS:
Steven E. Finkel
Professor, Department of Government and Foreign Affairs
University of Virginia
804-924-6994

Daniel Johnson, Ph.D.
Department of Sociology
University of Virginia
804-924-7293

For Information about the Center for Survey Research:

Thomas M. Guterbock
Director, Center for Survey Research
Associate Professor, Department of Sociology 
University of Virginia
804-924-6516




                   October 23, 1996